Piast Gliwice 0-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 44%, yet in-form Raków Częstochowa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa meet at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 6 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Piast Gliwice have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice at Stadion Miejski this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Piast Gliwice are significantly better at Stadion Miejski than their overall form suggests.
Raków Częstochowa (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Raków Częstochowa arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Piast Gliwice lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 43% versus Raków Częstochowa 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 34% | Raków Częstochowa 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.28 xG and Raków Częstochowa 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 1.044 / defence 0.873 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.903 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.183. Data: 44 Piast Gliwice games / 44 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 44% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 27%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Raków Częstochowa 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Piast Gliwice are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Raków Częstochowa (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 50% | Raków Częstochowa 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 44% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.28 / Raków Częstochowa 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 1.044 / def 0.873 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.903 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Raków Częstochowa xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 6 October 2022 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Piast Gliwice 0 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 44% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (2 meetings): Piast Gliwice 0W | Draws 0 | Raków Częstochowa 2W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (0.90x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
44%
2.25
28%
3.51
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.21
0.93
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
8%
13.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 0.93 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 18W 11D 15L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa's form line: 26W 11D 7L from 44 games, 2.02 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Piast Gliwice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.52 PPG from 21 outings (9W 5D 7L).
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 11W 4D 6L from 21 away games — 1.76 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.77 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 18W 11D 15L in their last 44 games (1.48 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 26W 11D 7L in their last 44 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.52 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 0-3 on 8 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Piast Gliwice
0
Draws
7
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 3, Raków Częstochowa have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Piast Gliwice 1-3 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 57%, Raków Częstochowa 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Piast Gliwice) and 52% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 33%; Raków Częstochowa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 43% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 52% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Raków Częstochowa defy the odds to beat Piast Gliwice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Piast Gliwice 0-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.28 xG and Raków Częstochowa 0.93 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Piast Gliwice fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 1.04 / defence 0.87 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.90 / defence 0.92, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 44% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 27%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Raków Częstochowa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 34%, Raków Częstochowa 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.