Piast Gliwice 2-1 Nieciecza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Nieciecza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski plays host to Piast Gliwice versus Nieciecza in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Friday 26 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Piast Gliwice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski, Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 1D 4L this season (8 games, 1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nieciecza have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Nieciecza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nieciecza away from home this season: 0W 3D 3L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Piast Gliwice, 1.00 for Nieciecza — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Piast Gliwice have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Nieciecza in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Piast Gliwice — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Nieciecza — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Piast Gliwice 43% and Nieciecza 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Piast Gliwice 29% | Nieciecza 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.38 xG and Nieciecza 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.988 / defence 1.335 | Nieciecza attack 0.807 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.225. Data: 15 Piast Gliwice games / 14 Nieciecza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 38% | Draw 27% | Nieciecza 35%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Nieciecza 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Piast Gliwice are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 62% | Nieciecza 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Nieciecza | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 38% | Draw 27% | Nieciecza 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.38 / Nieciecza 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.988 / def 1.335 | Nieciecza attack 0.807 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Nieciecza xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Nieciecza kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Nieciecza kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 26 November 2021 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Nieciecza?
Piast Gliwice 2 - 1 Nieciecza.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Nieciecza being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Nieciecza part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Nieciecza is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Nieciecza?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 38% chance of winning, Nieciecza a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Nieciecza?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Nieciecza will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Nieciecza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Nieciecza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Nieciecza in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Nieciecza (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Nieciecza's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Nieciecza's attack (0.81x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 15/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
38%
2.63
27%
3.75
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.70
1.32
Nieciecza xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
9%
11.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Nieciecza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Nieciecza expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.32 for Nieciecza, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Nieciecza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 5W 3D 6L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nieciecza's form line: 2W 6D 6L from 14 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Nieciecza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Piast Gliwice are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nieciecza.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.17 PPG from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L).
On the road, Nieciecza have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Nieciecza are on 1.29 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nieciecza in 79%.
Last 14 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Nieciecza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Nieciecza in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 games (1.29 PPG), while Nieciecza have gone 2W 6D 6L in their last 14 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Nieciecza away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.17 PPG; Nieciecza away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nieciecza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Piast Gliwice
0
Draws
1
Nieciecza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Nieciecza?
From 4 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 3, Nieciecza have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Nieciecza last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Nieciecza 3-2 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Nieciecza?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Nieciecza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 50%, Nieciecza 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Piast Gliwice and 33% for Nieciecza.
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 33% of games; Nieciecza in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Nieciecza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Nieciecza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Piast Gliwice's games and 67% of Nieciecza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Nieciecza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 33% of Nieciecza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Nieciecza tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Nieciecza in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Nieciecza 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Nieciecza 2-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.38 xG and Nieciecza 1.32 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.99 / defence 1.33 against Nieciecza attack 0.81 / defence 1.18, drawn from 15/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 38% | Draw 27% | Nieciecza 35%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 29%, Nieciecza 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Nieciecza's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Piast Gliwice arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.