Piast Gliwice 1-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Jagiellonia travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Piast Gliwice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 May 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Piast Gliwice stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Piast Gliwice have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadion Miejski — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jagiellonia's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Piast Gliwice) versus 1.70 (Jagiellonia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Piast Gliwice, 1 for Jagiellonia and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Jagiellonia in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 44% versus Jagiellonia 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 32% | Jagiellonia 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.85 xG and Jagiellonia 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 1.112 / defence 0.845 | Jagiellonia attack 1.332 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.128. Jagiellonia have an above-average attack strength of 1.332 — the away xG of 1.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 66 Piast Gliwice games / 66 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 50% | Draw 26% | Jagiellonia 25%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Jagiellonia 4.00. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 30% | Jagiellonia 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 50% | Draw 26% | Jagiellonia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.85 / Jagiellonia 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 1.112 / def 0.845 | Jagiellonia attack 1.332 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Jagiellonia xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia?
Piast Gliwice 1 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 50% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia?
Record (5 meetings): Piast Gliwice 1W | Draws 3 | Jagiellonia 1W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
50%
2.02
26%
3.87
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
3.12
1.27
Jagiellonia xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
16%
6.38
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
4%
25.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.27 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Piast Gliwice come into this having played 66 games, going 23W 23D 20L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.52 PPG from 66 outings (26W 22D 18L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.39 PPG, Jagiellonia on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Piast Gliwice's home form reads 13W 10D 10L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 1.09 points per game from 33 outings (7W 15D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jagiellonia's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.83 scored and 1.41 conceded. Jagiellonia's attacking output running into Piast Gliwice's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 71%.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
Jagiellonia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 23W 23D 20L in their last 66 games (1.39 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 26W 22D 18L in their last 66 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Jagiellonia away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.48 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
6
Draws
2
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Jagiellonia have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-2 Piast Gliwice.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 46%, Jagiellonia 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Piast Gliwice) and 58% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Piast Gliwice's games and 76% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 58% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.85 xG and Jagiellonia 1.27 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Piast Gliwice fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 1.11 / defence 0.84 against Jagiellonia attack 1.33 / defence 1.11, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 50% | Draw 26% | Jagiellonia 25%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 32%, Jagiellonia 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.39 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.