Piast Gliwice 2-0 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 33 as Piast Gliwice welcome Gornik Zabrze to Stadion Miejski. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 May 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gornik Zabrze stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Gornik Zabrze have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Piast Gliwice at 1.20 PPG versus Gornik Zabrze's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Piast Gliwice, 2 for Gornik Zabrze and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Gornik Zabrze in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 47% versus Gornik Zabrze 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 35% | Gornik Zabrze 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.00 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.719 / defence 0.942 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.831 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.282. Piast Gliwice's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 Piast Gliwice games / 66 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 34% | Draw 31% | Gornik Zabrze 35%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Gornik Zabrze 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 40% | Gornik Zabrze 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 34% | Draw 31% | Gornik Zabrze 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.00 / Gornik Zabrze 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.719 / def 0.942 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.831 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Gornik Zabrze xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Piast Gliwice 2 - 0 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 34% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (7 meetings): Piast Gliwice 2W | Draws 3 | Gornik Zabrze 2W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Piast Gliwice's attack rating (0.72) and Gornik Zabrze's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.3%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
34%
2.91
31%
3.22
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.00
1.00
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.00 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 19W 28D 19L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Gornik Zabrze's form line: 28W 15D 23L from 66 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.29 PPG, Gornik Zabrze on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.45 PPG from 33 outings (11W 15D 7L).
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 11W 7D 15L from 33 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.32 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
Gornik Zabrze
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 19W 28D 19L in their last 66 games (1.29 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 28W 15D 23L in their last 66 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.45 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Gornik Zabrze have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Gornik Zabrze specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Piast Gliwice
3
Draws
4
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 3, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 46%, Gornik Zabrze 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Piast Gliwice) and 54% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Gornik Zabrze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 61% of Gornik Zabrze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 54% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Piast Gliwice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gornik Zabrze.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Gornik Zabrze 2-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.00 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.00 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Piast Gliwice beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gornik Zabrze landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.72 / defence 0.94 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.83 / defence 0.90, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 34% | Draw 31% | Gornik Zabrze 35%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Piast Gliwice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 35%, Gornik Zabrze 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.29 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.