Piast Gliwice 1-0 Górnik Łęczna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Górnik Łęczna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice and Górnik Łęczna meet at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Piast Gliwice (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski, Piast Gliwice have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Górnik Łęczna have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Górnik Łęczna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Górnik Łęczna's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Piast Gliwice's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Górnik Łęczna's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Piast Gliwice 0W, Górnik Łęczna 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Piast Gliwice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Górnik Łęczna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 44% versus Górnik Łęczna 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 33% | Górnik Łęczna 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.14 xG and Górnik Łęczna 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.809 / defence 1.071 | Górnik Łęczna attack 0.715 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.058 / away 1.125. Górnik Łęczna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.329 — this is suppressing Piast Gliwice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Piast Gliwice games / 27 Górnik Łęczna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 41% | Draw 33% | Górnik Łęczna 26%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Górnik Łęczna 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Piast Gliwice are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Piast Gliwice 40% | Górnik Łęczna 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Górnik Łęczna | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 41% | Draw 33% | Górnik Łęczna 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.14 / Górnik Łęczna 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.809 / def 1.071 | Górnik Łęczna attack 0.715 / def 1.329 | league avg home 1.058 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Górnik Łęczna xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Górnik Łęczna kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Górnik Łęczna kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Górnik Łęczna?
Piast Gliwice 1 - 0 Górnik Łęczna.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Górnik Łęczna being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Górnik Łęczna part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Górnik Łęczna is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 41% chance of winning, Górnik Łęczna a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Górnik Łęczna will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Górnik Łęczna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Górnik Łęczna?
Record (1 meetings): Piast Gliwice 0W | Draws 1 | Górnik Łęczna 0W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Górnik Łęczna in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Górnik Łęczna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Piast Gliwice's attack rating (0.81) and Górnik Łęczna's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Górnik Łęczna's attack (0.71x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
41%
2.47
33%
3.00
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.00
0.86
Górnik Łęczna xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
8%
11.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 11.7 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Górnik Łęczna expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 0.86 for Górnik Łęczna, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Górnik Łęczna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 27 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 10W 8D 9L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Górnik Łęczna's form line: 5W 9D 13L from 27 games, 0.89 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Górnik Łęczna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Piast Gliwice are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Górnik Łęczna.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.38 PPG from 13 outings (5W 3D 5L).
On the road, Górnik Łęczna have gone 2W 4D 7L from 13 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Górnik Łęczna are on 0.89 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Górnik Łęczna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Górnik Łęczna in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 10W 8D 9L in their last 27 games (1.41 PPG), while Górnik Łęczna have gone 5W 9D 13L in their last 27 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Górnik Łęczna away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.38 PPG; Górnik Łęczna away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Piast Gliwice
1
Draws
0
Górnik Łęczna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Górnik Łęczna?
From 2 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 1, Górnik Łęczna have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Górnik Łęczna last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2022, when Piast Gliwice 1-0 Górnik Łęczna.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Górnik Łęczna?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Górnik Łęczna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 54%, Górnik Łęczna 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Piast Gliwice) and 46% (Górnik Łęczna).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 31% of games; Górnik Łęczna in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Górnik Łęczna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Górnik Łęczna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Piast Gliwice's games and 62% of Górnik Łęczna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Górnik Łęczna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 46% of Górnik Łęczna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Górnik Łęczna tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Górnik Łęczna in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Górnik Łęczna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Górnik Łęczna 1-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.14 xG and Górnik Łęczna 0.86 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Górnik Łęczna landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.81 / defence 1.07 against Górnik Łęczna attack 0.71 / defence 1.33, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 41% | Draw 33% | Górnik Łęczna 26%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 33%, Górnik Łęczna 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Górnik Łęczna's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Piast Gliwice arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Górnik Łęczna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.