Piast Gliwice 2-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 22 as Piast Gliwice welcome Cracovia Krakow to Stadion Miejski. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Cracovia Krakow's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Piast Gliwice's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Piast Gliwice, 1 for Cracovia Krakow and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Piast Gliwice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 46% versus Cracovia Krakow 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Piast Gliwice 33% | Cracovia Krakow 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.08 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.848 / defence 1.058 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.005 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.109. Data: 55 Piast Gliwice games / 55 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 32% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 37%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Cracovia Krakow 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 50% | Cracovia Krakow 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 32% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.08 / Cracovia Krakow 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.848 / def 1.058 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.005 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Cracovia Krakow xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Piast Gliwice 2 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 32% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (3 meetings): Piast Gliwice 2W | Draws 0 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Piast Gliwice's attack rating (0.85) and Cracovia Krakow's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
32%
3.12
31%
3.22
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.26
1.18
Cracovia Krakow xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
10%
10.16
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.18 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 20W 14D 21L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 21W 15D 19L from 55 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.35 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.22 PPG from 27 outings (9W 6D 12L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 8W 8D 11L from 27 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.18 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 20W 14D 21L in their last 55 games (1.35 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 21W 15D 19L in their last 55 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.22 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Piast Gliwice
5
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 4, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 2-3 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 56%, Cracovia Krakow 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Piast Gliwice) and 33% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 30% of games; Cracovia Krakow in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 44% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 33% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Piast Gliwice defy the odds to beat Cracovia Krakow 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Cracovia Krakow 2-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.08 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.18 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Piast Gliwice beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.85 / defence 1.06 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.00 / defence 1.07, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 32% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 37%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Piast Gliwice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 33%, Cracovia Krakow 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.35 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.