Miedz Legnica 0-1 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Miedz Legnica vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion im. Orła Białego plays host to Miedz Legnica versus Zaglebie Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Friday 12 August 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Miedz Legnica (all games): 0W 1D 2L across 3 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.33 PPG. Last five: D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Miedz Legnica have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zaglebie Lubin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zaglebie Lubin's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Zaglebie Lubin are 0.87 PPG clear of Miedz Legnica in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.20 vs 0.33). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Miedz Legnica half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Zaglebie Lubin half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Miedz Legnica 100% and Zaglebie Lubin 33% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Miedz Legnica 67% | Zaglebie Lubin 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Miedz Legnica 1.10 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Miedz Legnica attack 0.872 / defence 1.245 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.957 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.182. Data: 3 Miedz Legnica games / 38 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Miedz Legnica 29% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 44%. Fair-value odds: Miedz Legnica 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Zaglebie Lubin 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zaglebie Lubin at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Miedz Legnica 100% | Zaglebie Lubin 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Miedz Legnica vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion im. Orła Białego • Kick-off: Friday 12 Aug 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Miedz Legnica 29% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Miedz Legnica 1.10 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Miedz Legnica attack 0.872 / def 1.245 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.957 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Miedz Legnica xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Zaglebie Lubin xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Miedz Legnica vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Miedz Legnica vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 12 August 2022 at Stadion im. Orła Białego.
What was the final score in Miedz Legnica vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Miedz Legnica 0 - 1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Miedz Legnica vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Orła Białego.
What competition is Miedz Legnica vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Miedz Legnica vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Miedz Legnica vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Miedz Legnica a 29% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Miedz Legnica vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Miedz Legnica and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Miedz Legnica vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Miedz Legnica and Zaglebie Lubin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Miedz Legnica and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Miedz Legnica (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.33 | L5 D-L-L. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Miedz Legnica's attack rating (0.87) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (0.96x) against Miedz Legnica's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 3/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
29%
3.47
28%
3.61
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Miedz Legnica xG
Total xG
2.51
1.41
Zaglebie Lubin xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
7%
14.20
15%
6.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Miedz Legnica vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Miedz Legnica and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Miedz Legnica and 1.41 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Miedz Legnica vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 3 outings, Miedz Legnica have picked up 0.33 PPG on a 0W 1D 2L record — D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Miedz Legnica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zaglebie Lubin's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Zaglebie Lubin are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Miedz Legnica.
Attack vs Defence
Miedz Legnica are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 0.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Miedz Legnica have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Miedz Legnica
Early Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Miedz Legnica and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Miedz Legnica have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Miedz Legnica or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Miedz Legnica have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Miedz Legnica
0
Draws
2
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Miedz Legnica and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 2 meetings on record, Miedz Legnica have won 0, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Miedz Legnica and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2023, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Miedz Legnica.
Who has won more matches between Miedz Legnica and Zaglebie Lubin?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Miedz Legnica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Zaglebie Lubin see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Miedz Legnica, 33% for Zaglebie Lubin — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Miedz Legnica and 0% for Zaglebie Lubin.
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 33%; Zaglebie Lubin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Miedz Legnica home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Miedz Legnica play Zaglebie Lubin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Miedz Legnica's games and 33% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Miedz Legnica vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Miedz Legnica's recent games and 0% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Miedz Legnica and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Miedz Legnica have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zaglebie Lubin edge out Miedz Legnica 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Miedz Legnica 0-1 at Stadion im. Orła Białego, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Miedz Legnica 1.10 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.41 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Miedz Legnica fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Miedz Legnica attack 0.87 / defence 1.25 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.96 / defence 0.95, drawn from 3/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Miedz Legnica 29% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 44%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Miedz Legnica 67%, Zaglebie Lubin 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Miedz Legnica's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Zaglebie Lubin arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Miedz Legnica managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.