Miedz Legnica 1-0 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Miedz Legnica vs Slask Wroclaw encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Miedz Legnica and Slask Wroclaw meet at Stadion im. Orła Białego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Miedz Legnica have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Miedz Legnica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Miedz Legnica at Stadion im. Orła Białego this season: 1W 2D 4L from 7 home games — 0.71 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Slask Wroclaw (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slask Wroclaw's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Slask Wroclaw arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Miedz Legnica have seen both teams score in 71% of their games, Slask Wroclaw in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Miedz Legnica — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Slask Wroclaw — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Miedz Legnica 71% and Slask Wroclaw 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Miedz Legnica 57% | Slask Wroclaw 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Miedz Legnica 1.15 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Miedz Legnica attack 0.863 / defence 1.403 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.826 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.229. Data: 14 Miedz Legnica games / 49 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Miedz Legnica 30% | Draw 27% | Slask Wroclaw 43%. Fair-value odds: Miedz Legnica 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Slask Wroclaw 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slask Wroclaw are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Miedz Legnica 71% | Slask Wroclaw 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Miedz Legnica vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion im. Orła Białego • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Miedz Legnica 30% | Draw 27% | Slask Wroclaw 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Miedz Legnica 1.15 / Slask Wroclaw 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Miedz Legnica attack 0.863 / def 1.403 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.826 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Miedz Legnica xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Slask Wroclaw xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Miedz Legnica vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Miedz Legnica vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Stadion im. Orła Białego.
What was the final score in Miedz Legnica vs Slask Wroclaw?
Miedz Legnica 1 - 0 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Miedz Legnica vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Orła Białego.
What competition is Miedz Legnica vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Miedz Legnica vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Miedz Legnica vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Miedz Legnica a 30% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Miedz Legnica vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Miedz Legnica and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Miedz Legnica vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Miedz Legnica and Slask Wroclaw?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Miedz Legnica and Slask Wroclaw in?
Miedz Legnica (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Miedz Legnica's attack at 0.86x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slask Wroclaw's attack (0.83x) against Miedz Legnica's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 14/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
30%
3.32
27%
3.72
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Miedz Legnica xG
Total xG
2.58
1.43
Slask Wroclaw xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
7%
13.79
14%
7.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Miedz Legnica vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Miedz Legnica and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Miedz Legnica and 1.43 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Miedz Legnica vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Miedz Legnica come into this having played 14 games, going 1W 3D 10L for 0.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Miedz Legnica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slask Wroclaw sit at 1.36 PPG from 14 outings (5W 4D 5L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slask Wroclaw carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Miedz Legnica — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Miedz Legnica's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Slask Wroclaw have taken 1.17 points per game from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Miedz Legnica are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.21 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Miedz Legnica have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Slask Wroclaw in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Miedz Legnica
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Miedz Legnica and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Miedz Legnica have gone 1W 3D 10L in their last 14 games (0.43 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 5W 4D 5L in their last 14 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Miedz Legnica at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Slask Wroclaw's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Miedz Legnica at home: 0.83 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Miedz Legnica
0
Draws
1
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Miedz Legnica and Slask Wroclaw?
From 2 meetings on record, Miedz Legnica have won 1, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Miedz Legnica and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2023, when Slask Wroclaw 4-2 Miedz Legnica.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Miedz Legnica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Miedz Legnica 67%, Slask Wroclaw 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Miedz Legnica) and 33% (Slask Wroclaw).
On the defensive side: Miedz Legnica have failed to score in 33% of games; Slask Wroclaw in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Miedz Legnica home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Miedz Legnica play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Miedz Legnica's games and 50% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Miedz Legnica vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Miedz Legnica's recent games and 33% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Miedz Legnica and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Miedz Legnica have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Miedz Legnica defy the odds to beat Slask Wroclaw 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Miedz Legnica beat Slask Wroclaw 1-0 at Stadion im. Orła Białego, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Miedz Legnica 1.15 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.43 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slask Wroclaw landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Miedz Legnica attack 0.86 / defence 1.40 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.83 / defence 1.00, drawn from 14/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Miedz Legnica 30% | Draw 27% | Slask Wroclaw 43%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Miedz Legnica win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Miedz Legnica 57%, Slask Wroclaw 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Miedz Legnica's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Slask Wroclaw arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.43. Form was overturned, with Miedz Legnica winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Miedz Legnica (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.