Miedz Legnica 0-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Miedz Legnica vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Miedz Legnica and Piast Gliwice meet at Stadion im. Orła Białego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 March 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Miedz Legnica's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Miedz Legnica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Miedz Legnica's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Stadion im. Orła Białego this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Piast Gliwice have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Piast Gliwice have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Miedz Legnica, 1.50 for Piast Gliwice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Miedz Legnica, 1 for Piast Gliwice and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Piast Gliwice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Miedz Legnica goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Miedz Legnica 62% versus Piast Gliwice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Miedz Legnica 54% | Piast Gliwice 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Miedz Legnica 0.87 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Miedz Legnica attack 0.897 / defence 1.172 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.127 / defence 0.769. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.073. Piast Gliwice's defence strength of 0.769 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 24 Miedz Legnica games / 58 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Miedz Legnica 22% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 48%. Fair-value odds: Miedz Legnica 4.55 | Draw 3.33 | Piast Gliwice 2.08. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Piast Gliwice as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Miedz Legnica 70% | Piast Gliwice 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Miedz Legnica vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion im. Orła Białego • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Miedz Legnica 22% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Miedz Legnica 0.87 / Piast Gliwice 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Miedz Legnica attack 0.897 / def 1.172 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.127 / def 0.769 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Miedz Legnica xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Piast Gliwice xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Miedz Legnica vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Miedz Legnica vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Stadion im. Orła Białego.
What was the final score in Miedz Legnica vs Piast Gliwice?
Miedz Legnica 0 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Miedz Legnica vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Orła Białego.
What competition is Miedz Legnica vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Miedz Legnica vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Miedz Legnica vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Miedz Legnica a 22% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 48% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Miedz Legnica vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Miedz Legnica and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Miedz Legnica vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Miedz Legnica and Piast Gliwice?
Record (1 meetings): Miedz Legnica 0W | Draws 0 | Piast Gliwice 1W.
What form are Miedz Legnica and Piast Gliwice in?
Miedz Legnica (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Miedz Legnica's attack at 0.90x the league average against Piast Gliwice's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (1.13x) against Miedz Legnica's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 24/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
22%
4.62
30%
3.35
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Miedz Legnica xG
Total xG
2.29
1.42
Piast Gliwice xG
4.62
22%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
5%
19.06
20%
4.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 14.4 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Miedz Legnica vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Miedz Legnica and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Miedz Legnica and 1.42 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Miedz Legnica vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Miedz Legnica's recent record stands at 4W 7D 13L from 24 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Miedz Legnica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 11L across 24 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.79 PPG for Miedz Legnica against 1.12 for Piast Gliwice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Miedz Legnica have managed 3W 5D 4L from 12 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 4W 3D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Miedz Legnica are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.08 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Miedz Legnica have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Miedz Legnica
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Miedz Legnica and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Miedz Legnica have gone 4W 7D 13L in their last 24 games (0.79 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 7W 6D 11L in their last 24 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Miedz Legnica at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Piast Gliwice's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Miedz Legnica at home: 1.17 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Miedz Legnica
0
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Miedz Legnica and Piast Gliwice?
From 2 meetings on record, Miedz Legnica have won 0, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Miedz Legnica and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2023, when Miedz Legnica 0-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Miedz Legnica and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Miedz Legnica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Miedz Legnica 67%, Piast Gliwice 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Miedz Legnica and 17% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Miedz Legnica home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Miedz Legnica play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Miedz Legnica's recent matches and 33% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Miedz Legnica vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Miedz Legnica's recent games and 17% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Miedz Legnica and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Miedz Legnica have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Miedz Legnica 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Miedz Legnica 0-1 at Stadion im. Orła Białego, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Miedz Legnica 0.87 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.42 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Miedz Legnica fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Miedz Legnica attack 0.90 / defence 1.17 against Piast Gliwice attack 1.13 / defence 0.77, drawn from 24/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Miedz Legnica 22% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 48%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Miedz Legnica 54%, Piast Gliwice 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Miedz Legnica's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Miedz Legnica 0.79 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Miedz Legnica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.