Legia Warszawa 1-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa host Pogon Szczecin at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 October 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Legia Warszawa have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Legia Warszawa 2.00 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Legia Warszawa, 1 for Pogon Szczecin and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 1–3 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Legia Warszawa in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 47% versus Pogon Szczecin 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 51% | Pogon Szczecin 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.81 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.223 / defence 0.867 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.094 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.131. Data: 47 Legia Warszawa games / 47 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 55% | Draw 23% | Pogon Szczecin 22%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Pogon Szczecin 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 40% | Pogon Szczecin 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 55% | Draw 23% | Pogon Szczecin 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.81 / Pogon Szczecin 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.223 / def 0.867 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.094 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Pogon Szczecin xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Legia Warszawa 1 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 55% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (1 meetings): Legia Warszawa 0W | Draws 0 | Pogon Szczecin 1W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Legia Warszawa's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
55%
1.83
23%
4.35
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.89
1.07
Pogon Szczecin xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
16%
6.14
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
4%
27.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.8 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.07 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 47 games, going 20W 7D 20L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.85 PPG from 47 outings (24W 15D 8L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 15W 1D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Legia Warszawa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.57 points per game from 23 outings (9W 9D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.79 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin in 66%.
Last 47 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 20W 7D 20L in their last 47 games (1.43 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 24W 15D 8L in their last 47 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 2.00 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Legia Warszawa go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Legia Warszawa
3
Draws
3
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 4, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 0-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 39%, Pogon Szczecin 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Legia Warszawa) and 35% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 56% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 35% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 14, as Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.81 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.07 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Legia Warszawa fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.22 / defence 0.87 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.09 / defence 1.12, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 55% | Draw 23% | Pogon Szczecin 22%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 51%, Pogon Szczecin 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.