Legia Warszawa 0-0 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 39%, yet in-form Jagiellonia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa host Jagiellonia at Stadion Wojska Polskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 24 September 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Legia Warszawa at Stadion Wojska Polskiego this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Jagiellonia — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jagiellonia's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Jagiellonia — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Jagiellonia 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Jagiellonia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Legia Warszawa trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Jagiellonia trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Legia Warszawa 63% and Jagiellonia 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 54% | Jagiellonia 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.30 xG and Jagiellonia 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.105 / defence 0.912 | Jagiellonia attack 1.071 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.211. Jagiellonia's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Legia Warszawa games / 41 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 39% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 34%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Jagiellonia 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jagiellonia (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 50% | Jagiellonia 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Sep 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 39% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.30 / Jagiellonia 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.105 / def 0.912 | Jagiellonia attack 1.071 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Jagiellonia xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 24 September 2025 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Legia Warszawa 0 - 0 Jagiellonia.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 39% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia?
Record (8 meetings): Legia Warszawa 3W | Draws 3 | Jagiellonia 2W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Jagiellonia (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Legia Warszawa's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
39%
2.54
27%
3.70
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.49
1.18
Jagiellonia xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
12%
8.30
9%
10.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.18 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 18W 11D 12L from 41 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jagiellonia, meanwhile, have gone 22W 11D 8L across 41 games — 1.88 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 1.59 PPG, Jagiellonia on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 11W 5D 4L from 20 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jagiellonia's away record stands at 10W 5D 5L across 20 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.71 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Jagiellonia in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Jagiellonia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 18W 11D 12L in their last 41 games (1.59 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 22W 11D 8L in their last 41 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Jagiellonia away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.90 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2023, when Legia Warszawa won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
5
Draws
2
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Jagiellonia have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 2-2 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 65%, Jagiellonia 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Legia Warszawa) and 45% (Jagiellonia).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Legia Warszawa's games and 60% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 45% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Legia Warszawa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.30 xG and Jagiellonia 1.18 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Legia Warszawa fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Jagiellonia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.10 / defence 0.91 against Jagiellonia attack 1.07 / defence 0.77, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 39% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 34%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 54%, Jagiellonia 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.59 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.