Lechia Gdansk 0-0 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lechia Gdansk host Pogon Szczecin at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lechia Gdansk stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Lechia Gdansk at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Lechia Gdansk are significantly better at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk than their overall form suggests.
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pogon Szczecin away from home this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lechia Gdansk 1.70 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lechia Gdansk, 1 for Pogon Szczecin and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 1–5 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lechia Gdansk trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 50% versus Pogon Szczecin 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 44% | Pogon Szczecin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.27 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.257 / defence 0.873 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.052 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.251. Lechia Gdansk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — their λ of 1.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 32 Lechia Gdansk games / 32 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 38% | Draw 29% | Pogon Szczecin 33%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Pogon Szczecin 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lechia Gdansk 50% | Pogon Szczecin 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 38% | Draw 29% | Pogon Szczecin 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.27 / Pogon Szczecin 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.257 / def 0.873 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.052 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Pogon Szczecin xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin?
Lechia Gdansk 0 - 0 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 38% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (1 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 0W | Draws 0 | Pogon Szczecin 1W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lechia Gdansk's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
38%
2.61
29%
3.46
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.42
1.15
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
9%
10.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.3 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.15 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lechia Gdansk come into this having played 32 games, going 16W 8D 8L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.97 PPG from 32 outings (18W 9D 5L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lechia Gdansk on 1.75 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lechia Gdansk's home form reads 12W 3D 1L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.44 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Lechia Gdansk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.75 points per game from 16 outings (7W 7D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.91 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Current Season
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 16W 8D 8L in their last 32 games (1.75 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 18W 9D 5L in their last 32 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 2.44 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lechia Gdansk go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Pogon Szczecin won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lechia Gdansk's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
4
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 2-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 50%, Pogon Szczecin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Lechia Gdansk and 25% for Pogon Szczecin.
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 25% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lechia Gdansk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin finished level at 0-0 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.27 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.15 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Pogon Szczecin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.26 / defence 0.87 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.05 / defence 0.95, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 38% | Draw 29% | Pogon Szczecin 33%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 44%, Pogon Szczecin 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.75 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.