Lech Poznan 1-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lech Poznan at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 6 as Lech Poznan welcome Pogon Szczecin to INEA stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 August 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lech Poznan have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Lech Poznan have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lech Poznan's home record at INEA stadion: 2W 1D 0L from 3 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 3 home games (100%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at INEA stadion.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 3W 1D 1L from 5 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lech Poznan carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 2.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Lech Poznan in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lech Poznan 40% versus Pogon Szczecin 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lech Poznan 40% | Pogon Szczecin 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lech Poznan 1.37 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lech Poznan attack 0.973 / defence 0.814 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.708 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.113. Pogon Szczecin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Lech Poznan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Lech Poznan games / 5 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lech Poznan 53% | Draw 31% | Pogon Szczecin 16%. Fair-value odds: Lech Poznan 1.89 | Draw 3.23 | Pogon Szczecin 6.25. Lech Poznan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lech Poznan at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lech Poznan 0% | Pogon Szczecin 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: INEA stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lech Poznan 53% | Draw 31% | Pogon Szczecin 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 37% | xG Lech Poznan 1.37 / Pogon Szczecin 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Lech Poznan attack 0.973 / def 0.814 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.708 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Lech Poznan xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Pogon Szczecin xG
37%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at INEA stadion.
What was the final score in Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin?
Lech Poznan 1 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at INEA stadion.
What competition is Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Lech Poznan a 53% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 16% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Lech Poznan and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Pogon Szczecin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lech Poznan and Pogon Szczecin in?
Lech Poznan (all comps): 4W-1D-0L in 5 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lech Poznan's attack rating (0.97) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Lech Poznan's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
53%
1.89
31%
3.19
16%
6.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Lech Poznan xG
Total xG
2.01
0.64
Pogon Szczecin xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
6.31
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
28%
3.60
4%
24.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 11.8 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Lech Poznan and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 0.64 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 5 outings, Lech Poznan have picked up 2.60 PPG on a 4W 1D 0L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lech Poznan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pogon Szczecin's form line: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pogon Szczecin.
The Goals Picture
Lech Poznan are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Lech Poznan's scoring rate against Pogon Szczecin's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games; Pogon Szczecin in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lech Poznan
Early Season
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lech Poznan and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Lech Poznan have gone 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 games (2.60 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
Have Lech Poznan or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lech Poznan and Pogon Szczecin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Pogon Szczecin won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lech Poznan's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lech Poznan
4
Draws
1
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Lech Poznan have won 5, Pogon Szczecin have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lech Poznan and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 1-2 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Lech Poznan and Pogon Szczecin?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lech Poznan 40%, Pogon Szczecin 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Lech Poznan and 20% for Pogon Szczecin.
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lech Poznan home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lech Poznan play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Lech Poznan's recent matches and 40% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Lech Poznan's recent games and 20% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lech Poznan and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Lech Poznan have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lech Poznan and Pogon Szczecin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at INEA stadion, Regular Season - 6, as Lech Poznan and Pogon Szczecin drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 1.37 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.64 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 0.97 / defence 0.81 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.71 / defence 1.20, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 53% | Draw 31% | Pogon Szczecin 16%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 40%, Pogon Szczecin 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lech Poznan's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 2.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lech Poznan managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.