ŁKS Łódź 0-2 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates ŁKS Łódź at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this ŁKS Łódź vs Warta Poznań fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
ŁKS Łódź and Warta Poznań meet at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 September 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
ŁKS Łódź (all games): 2W 0D 4L across 6 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. ŁKS Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Warta Poznań have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Warta Poznań have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Warta Poznań's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
ŁKS Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Warta Poznań half-time and goal-timing data (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ŁKS Łódź 33% versus Warta Poznań 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ŁKS Łódź 50% | Warta Poznań 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ŁKS Łódź 1.53 xG and Warta Poznań 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.946 / defence 1.012 | Warta Poznań attack 1.172 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 0.907. Data: 6 ŁKS Łódź games / 40 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 48% | Draw 26% | Warta Poznań 26%. Fair-value odds: ŁKS Łódź 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Warta Poznań 3.85. ŁKS Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ŁKS Łódź at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ŁKS Łódź if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: ŁKS Łódź 33% | Warta Poznań 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ŁKS Łódź vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz • Kick-off: Friday 1 Sep 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 48% | Draw 26% | Warta Poznań 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG ŁKS Łódź 1.53 / Warta Poznań 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.946 / def 1.012 | Warta Poznań attack 1.172 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.391 / away 0.907 • Poisson stance: ŁKS Łódź (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
ŁKS Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Warta Poznań xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ŁKS Łódź vs Warta Poznań kick off?
ŁKS Łódź vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 1 September 2023 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What was the final score in ŁKS Łódź vs Warta Poznań?
ŁKS Łódź 0 - 2 Warta Poznań.
Where is ŁKS Łódź vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What competition is ŁKS Łódź vs Warta Poznań part of?
ŁKS Łódź vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win ŁKS Łódź vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives ŁKS Łódź a 48% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making ŁKS Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in ŁKS Łódź vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both ŁKS Łódź and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will ŁKS Łódź vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Warta Poznań?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Warta Poznań in?
ŁKS Łódź (all comps): 2W-0D-4L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Warta Poznań (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates ŁKS Łódź's attack at 0.95x the league average against Warta Poznań's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Warta Poznań's attack (1.17x) against ŁKS Łódź's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ŁKS Łódź Win
48%
2.10
26%
3.85
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
ŁKS Łódź xG
Total xG
2.61
1.08
Warta Poznań xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
6%
17.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.1 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ŁKS Łódź vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are ŁKS Łódź and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for ŁKS Łódź and 1.08 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for ŁKS Łódź vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 6 outings, ŁKS Łódź have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 4L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for ŁKS Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Warta Poznań's form line: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Warta Poznań, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for ŁKS Łódź against 1.00 for Warta Poznań. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ŁKS Łódź are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ŁKS Łódź
Early Season
Warta Poznań
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
ŁKS Łódź have gone 2W 0D 4L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Have ŁKS Łódź or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
ŁKS Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
ŁKS Łódź
0
Draws
1
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Warta Poznań?
From 2 meetings on record, ŁKS Łódź have won 1, Warta Poznań have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ŁKS Łódź and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2024, when Warta Poznań 0-1 ŁKS Łódź.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ŁKS Łódź 33%, Warta Poznań 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (ŁKS Łódź) and 50% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań in 33%; ŁKS Łódź have failed to score in 50% of games; Warta Poznań in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ŁKS Łódź home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ŁKS Łódź play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of ŁKS Łódź's recent matches and 50% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ŁKS Łódź vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of ŁKS Łódź's recent games and 50% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ŁKS Łódź and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
ŁKS Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Warta Poznań cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over ŁKS Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań beat ŁKS Łódź 0-2 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ŁKS Łódź 1.53 xG and Warta Poznań 1.08 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. ŁKS Łódź fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Warta Poznań outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ŁKS Łódź attack 0.95 / defence 1.01 against Warta Poznań attack 1.17 / defence 1.17, drawn from 6/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ŁKS Łódź 48% | Draw 26% | Warta Poznań 26%, with ŁKS Łódź to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Warta Poznań win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ŁKS Łódź 50%, Warta Poznań 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ŁKS Łódź 1.00 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Warta Poznań win broke the near-deadlock. Warta Poznań conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.