ŁKS Łódź 0-5 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ŁKS Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz plays host to ŁKS Łódź versus Gornik Zabrze in Ekstraklasa (matchday 13). Kick-off: Friday 27 October 2023 at 20:30 UK time.
Form
ŁKS Łódź (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
ŁKS Łódź's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 2L across their last 5 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — ŁKS Łódź are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Gornik Zabrze have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gornik Zabrze away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Gornik Zabrze are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
ŁKS Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (last 12 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
Gornik Zabrze half-time and goal-timing data (last 12 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ŁKS Łódź 33% versus Gornik Zabrze 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (ŁKS Łódź 50% | Gornik Zabrze 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ŁKS Łódź 1.09 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.776 / defence 1.190 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.938 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.136. ŁKS Łódź's attack rating of 0.776 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. Data: built from ŁKS Łódź's last 12 games and Gornik Zabrze's last 46.
Result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 30% | Draw 31% | Gornik Zabrze 39%. Fair-value odds: ŁKS Łódź 3.34 | Draw 3.19 | Gornik Zabrze 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: ŁKS Łódź 40% (last 5 home games) | Gornik Zabrze 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ŁKS Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 13 | Venue: Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz • Kick-off: Friday 27 October 2023 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 30% | Draw 31% | Gornik Zabrze 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG ŁKS Łódź 1.09 / Gornik Zabrze 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.776 / def 1.190 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.938 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
ŁKS Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Gornik Zabrze xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze FAQs
What time does ŁKS Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
ŁKS Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 27 October 2023 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What was the final score in ŁKS Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze?
ŁKS Łódź 0 - 5 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is ŁKS Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What competition is ŁKS Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
ŁKS Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 13) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win ŁKS Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives ŁKS Łódź a 30% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in ŁKS Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both ŁKS Łódź and Gornik Zabrze will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will ŁKS Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates ŁKS Łódź's attack at 0.78x the league average against Gornik Zabrze's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gornik Zabrze's attack (0.94x) against ŁKS Łódź's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from ŁKS Łódź's last 12 games and Gornik Zabrze's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
30%
3.34
31%
3.19
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
ŁKS Łódź xG
Total xG
2.36
1.27
Gornik Zabrze xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
8%
11.90
13%
7.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.0 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for ŁKS Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are ŁKS Łódź and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for ŁKS Łódź and 1.27 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for ŁKS Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ŁKS Łódź come into this having played 12 games, going 2W 1D 9L for 0.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Gornik Zabrze sit at 1.08 PPG from 12 outings (3W 4D 5L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Gornik Zabrze carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of ŁKS Łódź — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
ŁKS Łódź's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across their last 5 home games, a 1.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.58 PPG overall — ŁKS Łódź are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gornik Zabrze have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 5 away games (1W 2D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ŁKS Łódź are averaging 0.58 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 0.75 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ŁKS Łódź
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
ŁKS Łódź (Home) vs Gornik Zabrze (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
ŁKS Łódź
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze Form FAQs
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
ŁKS Łódź have gone 2W 1D 9L in their last 12 games (0.58 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ŁKS Łódź at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
ŁKS Łódź's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ŁKS Łódź at home: 1.40 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
ŁKS Łódź
0
Draws
2
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Gornik Zabrze?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, ŁKS Łódź have won 0, Gornik Zabrze have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ŁKS Łódź and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2024: Gornik Zabrze 4-1 ŁKS Łódź.
Who has won more matches between ŁKS Łódź and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ŁKS Łódź 40%, Gornik Zabrze 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (ŁKS Łódź) and 40% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: ŁKS Łódź have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ŁKS Łódź home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in ŁKS Łódź and Gornik Zabrze matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of ŁKS Łódź's games and 80% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are ŁKS Łódź and Gornik Zabrze matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of ŁKS Łódź's recent games and 40% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ŁKS Łódź and Gornik Zabrze matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of ŁKS Łódź's recent matches and 80% of Gornik Zabrze's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gornik Zabrze run riot with a 0-5 hammering of ŁKS Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat ŁKS Łódź 0-5 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ŁKS Łódź 1.09 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.27 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. ŁKS Łódź fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Gornik Zabrze outscored their 1.27 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ŁKS Łódź attack 0.78 / defence 1.19 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.94 / defence 0.92, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ŁKS Łódź 30% | Draw 31% | Gornik Zabrze 39%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ŁKS Łódź 50%, Gornik Zabrze 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Gornik Zabrze arrived the stronger side — 1.08 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was vindicated by the result. ŁKS Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.