Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Korona Kielce take on Widzew Łódź.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Exbud Arena plays host to Korona Kielce versus Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 13 February 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Korona Kielce's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Korona Kielce have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Korona Kielce's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Exbud Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Widzew Łódź have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Korona Kielce have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 9 meetings, with Widzew Łódź managing just 2 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2026, ended 2–1 with Korona Kielce winning.
The historical record gives Korona Kielce a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Korona Kielce — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 54% versus Widzew Łódź 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Korona Kielce 36% | Widzew Łódź 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.23 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 0.884 / defence 0.899 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.023 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.297. Data: 39 Korona Kielce games / 40 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 34% | Draw 34% | Widzew Łódź 32%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Widzew Łódź 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Korona Kielce 80% | Widzew Łódź 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Exbud Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 34% | Draw 34% | Widzew Łódź 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Korona Kielce 1.23 / Widzew Łódź 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 0.884 / def 0.899 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.023 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Widzew Łódź xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Exbud Arena.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Exbud Arena.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 34% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź?
Record (9 meetings): Korona Kielce 6W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 2W.
What form are Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź in?
Korona Kielce (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Korona Kielce's attack at 0.88x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (1.02x) against Korona Kielce's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.94
34%
2.94
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
2.42
1.19
Widzew Łódź xG
2.94
34%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
10%
9.70
9%
10.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.6 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.19 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Korona Kielce's recent record stands at 13W 12D 14L from 39 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Korona Kielce, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Widzew Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 18L across 39 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Korona Kielce against 1.15 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Korona Kielce have managed 7W 7D 5L from 19 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Widzew Łódź's away record stands at 4W 4D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Korona Kielce come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.28 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Early Season
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 13W 12D 14L in their last 39 games (1.31 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 12W 9D 18L in their last 39 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Korona Kielce's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.47 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Korona Kielce go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Korona Kielce won 0-3 on 27 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Korona Kielce have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Korona Kielce
1
Draws
2
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź?
From 9 meetings on record, Korona Kielce have won 6, Widzew Łódź have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Widzew Łódź 1-2 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 58%, Widzew Łódź 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Korona Kielce) and 42% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Korona Kielce keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Widzew Łódź in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Korona Kielce play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 42% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 42% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Korona Kielce have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.