Jagiellonia 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jagiellonia host Zaglebie Lubin at Chorten Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 May 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Chorten Arena, Jagiellonia have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zaglebie Lubin stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
Jagiellonia hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 1 for Zaglebie Lubin, with 3 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Jagiellonia a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 64% versus Zaglebie Lubin 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 58% | Zaglebie Lubin 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.48 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.182 / defence 1.174 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.035 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.175. Data: 67 Jagiellonia games / 67 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 37% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 35%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Zaglebie Lubin 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 90% | Zaglebie Lubin 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 May 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 37% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Jagiellonia 1.48 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.182 / def 1.174 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.035 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Zaglebie Lubin xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 23 May 2026 at Chorten Arena.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Jagiellonia 1 - 0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 37% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (9 meetings): Jagiellonia 5W | Draws 3 | Zaglebie Lubin 1W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jagiellonia's attack at 1.18x the league average against Zaglebie Lubin's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
37%
2.67
27%
3.68
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.90
1.43
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
9%
11.13
8%
12.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.43 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jagiellonia come into this having played 67 games, going 31W 21D 15L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.25 PPG from 67 outings (23W 15D 29L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jagiellonia's home form reads 17W 9D 7L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.09 points per game from 33 outings (10W 6D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.16 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Current Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 31W 21D 15L in their last 67 games (1.70 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 23W 15D 29L in their last 67 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.82 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jagiellonia won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Jagiellonia
3
Draws
1
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 6, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 70%, Zaglebie Lubin 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Jagiellonia) and 42% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Zaglebie Lubin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Jagiellonia's games and 52% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 42% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jagiellonia edge out Zaglebie Lubin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.48 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.43 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Zaglebie Lubin landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.18 / defence 1.17 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.03 / defence 0.90, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 37% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 35%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 58%, Zaglebie Lubin 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.