Jagiellonia 2-2 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 37%, yet in-form Legia Warszawa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jagiellonia host Legia Warszawa at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 May 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadion Miejski, Jagiellonia have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Legia Warszawa's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Legia Warszawa — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jagiellonia register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Legia Warszawa in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Jagiellonia have won 0, Legia Warszawa 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Legia Warszawa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 66% versus Legia Warszawa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 56% | Legia Warszawa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.16 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 0.886 / defence 1.094 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.760 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.057 / away 1.260. Legia Warszawa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Jagiellonia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Jagiellonia games / 32 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 37% | Draw 32% | Legia Warszawa 31%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Legia Warszawa 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jagiellonia at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Legia Warszawa (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Jagiellonia 80% | Legia Warszawa 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 13 May 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 37% | Draw 32% | Legia Warszawa 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Jagiellonia 1.16 / Legia Warszawa 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 0.886 / def 1.094 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.760 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.057 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Legia Warszawa xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 13 May 2022 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa?
Jagiellonia 2 - 2 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 37% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa?
Record (1 meetings): Jagiellonia 0W | Draws 0 | Legia Warszawa 1W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jagiellonia's attack at 0.89x the league average against Legia Warszawa's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
37%
2.71
32%
3.14
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.21
1.05
Legia Warszawa xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
10%
10.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.05 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jagiellonia come into this having played 32 games, going 8W 12D 12L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 1.22 PPG from 32 outings (12W 3D 17L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jagiellonia on 1.12 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jagiellonia's home form reads 5W 7D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 0.75 points per game from 16 outings (3W 3D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.28 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Current Season
Legia Warszawa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 8W 12D 12L in their last 32 games (1.12 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 12W 3D 17L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.38 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2023, when Legia Warszawa won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jagiellonia
5
Draws
3
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 2, Legia Warszawa have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 2-2 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 69%, Legia Warszawa 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Jagiellonia) and 44% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Jagiellonia's games and 56% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 44% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.16 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.05 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Legia Warszawa outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.76 / defence 1.24, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 37% | Draw 32% | Legia Warszawa 31%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 56%, Legia Warszawa 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.12 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.