Jagiellonia 1-0 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Lechia Gdansk travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Jagiellonia. The game is scheduled for Monday 10 April 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's home record at Stadion Miejski: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Jagiellonia are significantly better at Stadion Miejski than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lechia Gdansk have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jagiellonia 1.20 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Jagiellonia, 0 for Lechia Gdansk and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jagiellonia trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Lechia Gdansk trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 67% versus Lechia Gdansk 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 52% | Lechia Gdansk 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 2.03 xG and Lechia Gdansk 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.224 / defence 1.166 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.811 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.034. Lechia Gdansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing Jagiellonia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Jagiellonia games / 60 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 60% | Draw 24% | Lechia Gdansk 16%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Lechia Gdansk 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 80% | Lechia Gdansk 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 60% | Draw 24% | Lechia Gdansk 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Jagiellonia 2.03 / Lechia Gdansk 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.224 / def 1.166 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.811 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Lechia Gdansk xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk?
Jagiellonia 1 - 0 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 60% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk?
Record (3 meetings): Jagiellonia 1W | Draws 2 | Lechia Gdansk 0W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Lechia Gdansk's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, Lechia Gdansk's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.14
16%
6.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
3.01
0.98
Lechia Gdansk xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
6.35
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
13%
7.62
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
2%
48.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.98 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Jagiellonia have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 15W 25D 20L record — L-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lechia Gdansk's form line: 23W 14D 23L from 60 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jagiellonia on 1.17 PPG, Lechia Gdansk on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jagiellonia have posted 1.43 PPG from 30 outings (11W 10D 9L).
On the road, Lechia Gdansk have gone 7W 6D 17L from 30 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lechia Gdansk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.28 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 15W 25D 20L in their last 60 games (1.17 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 23W 14D 23L in their last 60 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.43 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Mar 2026, when Lechia Gdansk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Lechia Gdansk specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Jagiellonia
2
Draws
2
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk?
From 8 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 4, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 3-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 70%, Lechia Gdansk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Jagiellonia) and 57% (Lechia Gdansk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Lechia Gdansk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Jagiellonia's games and 50% of Lechia Gdansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Jagiellonia's matches and 57% of Lechia Gdansk's.
Do Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jagiellonia edge out Lechia Gdansk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Lechia Gdansk 1-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 2.03 xG and Lechia Gdansk 0.98 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jagiellonia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Lechia Gdansk landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.22 / defence 1.17 against Lechia Gdansk attack 0.81 / defence 1.34, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 60% | Draw 24% | Lechia Gdansk 16%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 52%, Lechia Gdansk 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.17 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.