Jagiellonia 4-1 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jagiellonia and Korona Kielce meet at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jagiellonia have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jagiellonia have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadion Miejski — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Korona Kielce's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Korona Kielce have posted 2W 1D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Jagiellonia, 1.10 for Korona Kielce — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Korona Kielce half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 60% and Korona Kielce 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 50% | Korona Kielce 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.65 xG and Korona Kielce 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.153 / defence 0.950 | Korona Kielce attack 0.944 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.198. Data: 44 Jagiellonia games / 10 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 51% | Draw 24% | Korona Kielce 25%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Korona Kielce 4.00. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jagiellonia at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Jagiellonia 60% | Korona Kielce 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 51% | Draw 24% | Korona Kielce 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Jagiellonia 1.65 / Korona Kielce 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.153 / def 0.950 | Korona Kielce attack 0.944 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Korona Kielce xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce?
Jagiellonia 4 - 1 Korona Kielce.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce part of?
Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 51% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Jagiellonia and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Korona Kielce?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jagiellonia and Korona Kielce in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Korona Kielce (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jagiellonia's attack at 1.15x the league average against Korona Kielce's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Korona Kielce's attack (0.94x) against Jagiellonia's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.09
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.73
1.07
Korona Kielce xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
5%
21.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.6 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.07 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jagiellonia come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 4D 3L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-D. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.10 PPG from 10 outings (3W 2D 5L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.10 for Korona Kielce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Jagiellonia's home form reads 3W 0D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Jagiellonia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Korona Kielce have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.20 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Korona Kielce in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 games (1.30 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Korona Kielce away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.80 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 4-1 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Jagiellonia
2
Draws
2
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Korona Kielce?
From 9 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 5, Korona Kielce have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-0 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Korona Kielce?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 40%, Korona Kielce 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Jagiellonia) and 40% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Korona Kielce in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Korona Kielce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 40% of Korona Kielce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 40% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jagiellonia run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Korona Kielce.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Korona Kielce 4-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.65 xG and Korona Kielce 1.07 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.15 / defence 0.95 against Korona Kielce attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 51% | Draw 24% | Korona Kielce 25%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 50%, Korona Kielce 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.30 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.