Gornik Zabrze 0-0 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 3 as Gornik Zabrze welcome Piast Gliwice to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 August 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Gornik Zabrze have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Gornik Zabrze have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gornik Zabrze have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Piast Gliwice stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Piast Gliwice away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gornik Zabrze at 2.00 PPG versus Piast Gliwice's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Gornik Zabrze have won 0, Piast Gliwice 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2023, ended 0–1 with Piast Gliwice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Gornik Zabrze trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Piast Gliwice trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 47% versus Piast Gliwice 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gornik Zabrze 44% | Piast Gliwice 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 0.94 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.883 / defence 1.092 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.949 / defence 0.724. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.018. Piast Gliwice's defence strength of 0.724 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Gornik Zabrze games / 36 Piast Gliwice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 30% | Draw 33% | Piast Gliwice 37%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Piast Gliwice 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 40% | Piast Gliwice 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Aug 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 30% | Draw 33% | Piast Gliwice 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Gornik Zabrze 0.94 / Piast Gliwice 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.883 / def 1.092 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.949 / def 0.724 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Piast Gliwice xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Gornik Zabrze 0 - 0 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 30% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice?
Record (4 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 0W | Draws 2 | Piast Gliwice 2W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gornik Zabrze's attack at 0.88x the league average against Piast Gliwice's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
30%
3.28
33%
3.04
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
1.99
1.05
Piast Gliwice xG
3.28
30%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
11%
9.42
14%
6.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 14.4 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.05 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Gornik Zabrze have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 13W 9D 14L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 14W 9D 13L from 36 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gornik Zabrze on 1.33 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gornik Zabrze have posted 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L).
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 8W 5D 5L from 18 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.06 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Early Season
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 13W 9D 14L in their last 36 games (1.33 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 14W 9D 13L in their last 36 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Piast Gliwice's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.28 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gornik Zabrze have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gornik Zabrze
3
Draws
3
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, Piast Gliwice have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 50%, Piast Gliwice 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Gornik Zabrze and 17% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 39%; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 28% of games; Piast Gliwice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 33% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 17% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gornik Zabrze's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice finished level at 0-0 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 0.94 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.05 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Piast Gliwice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.95 / defence 0.72, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 30% | Draw 33% | Piast Gliwice 37%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 44%, Piast Gliwice 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.33 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.