Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Legia Warszawa travel to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla to take on Gornik Zabrze. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 October 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Gornik Zabrze have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Gornik Zabrze have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gornik Zabrze at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gornik Zabrze 2.20 PPG, Legia Warszawa 2.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Legia Warszawa have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 10 encounters against Gornik Zabrze's 2 victories.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Legia Warszawa have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Gornik Zabrze trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 55% versus Legia Warszawa 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 52% | Legia Warszawa 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.52 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.143 / defence 1.153 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.069 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.280. Data: 39 Gornik Zabrze games / 41 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 34% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 36%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Legia Warszawa 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 50% | Legia Warszawa 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 34% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 65% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.52 / Legia Warszawa 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.143 / def 1.153 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.069 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Legia Warszawa xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 34% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa?
Record (10 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 2W | Draws 3 | Legia Warszawa 5W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gornik Zabrze's attack rating (1.14) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
34%
2.97
30%
3.29
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
3.10
1.58
Legia Warszawa xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
7%
14.39
8%
12.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.8 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.58 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Gornik Zabrze have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 21W 8D 11L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 15W 16D 9L from 40 games, 1.52 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gornik Zabrze on 1.78 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gornik Zabrze have posted 2.00 PPG from 20 outings (13W 1D 6L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 5W 9D 6L from 20 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.38 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Early Season
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 21W 8D 11L in their last 40 games (1.78 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 15W 16D 9L in their last 40 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 2.00 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gornik Zabrze
3
Draws
5
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 2, Legia Warszawa have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-1 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Gornik Zabrze at 60%, Legia Warszawa at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Gornik Zabrze) and 40% (Legia Warszawa).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Gornik Zabrze's games and 70% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 40% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.