Gornik Zabrze 3-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 43%, yet the head-to-head data favours Cracovia Krakow — this Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla plays host to Gornik Zabrze versus Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa (matchday 27). Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Gornik Zabrze have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Gornik Zabrze at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Gornik Zabrze are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Cracovia Krakow's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Cracovia Krakow have the stronger record — 5 wins to Gornik Zabrze's 2, with 1 draw.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Gornik Zabrze 1–1 Cracovia Krakow — a draw.
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Gornik Zabrze goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cracovia Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 50% versus Cracovia Krakow 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 47% | Cracovia Krakow 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Gornik Zabrze surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Cracovia Krakow have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 57% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.20 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.082 / defence 0.954 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.790 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.102. Cracovia Krakow bring a tight defence (rating 0.788, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Gornik Zabrze's projected output down. Cracovia Krakow's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Gornik Zabrze's last 60 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 60.
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 43% | Draw 32% | Cracovia Krakow 24%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.30 | Draw 3.10 | Cracovia Krakow 4.10. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Gornik Zabrze 70% (last 10 home games) | Cracovia Krakow 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 43% | Draw 32% | Cracovia Krakow 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.20 / Cracovia Krakow 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.082 / def 0.954 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.790 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Cracovia Krakow xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow FAQs
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow?
Gornik Zabrze 3 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 27) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 43% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gornik Zabrze's attack at 1.08x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.79x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from Gornik Zabrze's last 60 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
43%
2.30
32%
3.10
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.03
0.83
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
7%
13.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 10.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 0.83 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Gornik Zabrze have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 24W 14D 22L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 23W 18D 19L from 60 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Gornik Zabrze against 1.45 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gornik Zabrze have posted 1.77 PPG from their last 30 home games (16W 5D 9L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 13W 7D 10L from their last 30 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.48 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow in 63%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Gornik Zabrze (Home) vs Cracovia Krakow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow Form FAQs
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 24W 14D 22L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 23W 18D 19L in their last 60 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.77 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Gornik Zabrze have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cracovia Krakow won Cracovia Krakow 5-0 Gornik Zabrze on 3 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gornik Zabrze have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gornik Zabrze
1
Draws
5
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Cracovia Krakow 0-1 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 50%, Cracovia Krakow 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gornik Zabrze) and 53% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 37%; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 57% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 53% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 67% of Cracovia Krakow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gornik Zabrze run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cracovia Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Cracovia Krakow 3-0 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.20 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.83 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cracovia Krakow landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.08 / defence 0.95 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.79 / defence 0.79, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 43% | Draw 32% | Cracovia Krakow 24%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 47%, Cracovia Krakow 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.43 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.