Górnik Łęczna 1-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Górnik Łęczna vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Górnik Łęczna host Radomiak Radom at Stadion Górnik in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 April 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Górnik Łęczna — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Górnik Łęczna's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Górnik this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Górnik Łęczna at 0.90 PPG versus Radomiak Radom's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Górnik Łęczna, 1 for Radomiak Radom and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2021, ended 1–3 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Górnik Łęczna in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Górnik Łęczna 57% versus Radomiak Radom 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Górnik Łęczna 46% | Radomiak Radom 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Górnik Łęczna 1.04 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.779 / defence 1.399 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.769 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.068 / away 1.108. Górnik Łęczna's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Górnik Łęczna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Górnik Łęczna games / 28 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 30% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 38%. Fair-value odds: Górnik Łęczna 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Radomiak Radom 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Górnik Łęczna 50% | Radomiak Radom 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Górnik Łęczna vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Górnik • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 30% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Górnik Łęczna 1.04 / Radomiak Radom 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.779 / def 1.399 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.769 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.068 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Górnik Łęczna xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Radomiak Radom xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Górnik Łęczna vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Górnik Łęczna vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Stadion Górnik.
What was the final score in Górnik Łęczna vs Radomiak Radom?
Górnik Łęczna 1 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Górnik Łęczna vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Górnik.
What competition is Górnik Łęczna vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Górnik Łęczna vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Górnik Łęczna vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Górnik Łęczna a 30% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Górnik Łęczna vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Górnik Łęczna and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Górnik Łęczna vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Radomiak Radom?
Record (1 meetings): Górnik Łęczna 0W | Draws 0 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Radomiak Radom in?
Górnik Łęczna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Górnik Łęczna's attack rating (0.78) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Górnik Łęczna's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
30%
3.30
32%
3.16
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Górnik Łęczna xG
Total xG
2.23
1.19
Radomiak Radom xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
9%
10.85
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Górnik Łęczna vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Górnik Łęczna and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Górnik Łęczna and 1.19 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Górnik Łęczna vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Górnik Łęczna have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 5W 9D 14L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Radomiak Radom's form line: 10W 13D 5L from 28 games, 1.54 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-D.
Put side by side, Radomiak Radom are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Górnik Łęczna.
Venue Form
On home soil, Górnik Łęczna have posted 1.00 PPG from 14 outings (3W 5D 6L).
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 4W 6D 4L from 14 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Górnik Łęczna are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.29 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Górnik Łęczna
Current Season
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Górnik Łęczna have gone 5W 9D 14L in their last 28 games (0.86 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 10W 13D 5L in their last 28 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Górnik Łęczna at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Radomiak Radom's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Górnik Łęczna at home: 1.00 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Górnik Łęczna
0
Draws
1
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Radomiak Radom?
From 2 meetings on record, Górnik Łęczna have won 1, Radomiak Radom have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Górnik Łęczna and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2022, when Górnik Łęczna 1-0 Radomiak Radom.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Górnik Łęczna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Górnik Łęczna 57%, Radomiak Radom 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Górnik Łęczna) and 43% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 36%; Górnik Łęczna have failed to score in 36% of games; Radomiak Radom in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Górnik Łęczna home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Górnik Łęczna play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Górnik Łęczna's recent matches and 43% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Górnik Łęczna vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Górnik Łęczna's recent games and 43% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Górnik Łęczna and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Górnik Łęczna have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Górnik Łęczna defy the odds to beat Radomiak Radom 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Górnik Łęczna beat Radomiak Radom 1-0 at Stadion Górnik, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Górnik Łęczna 1.04 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.19 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Radomiak Radom landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Górnik Łęczna attack 0.78 / defence 1.40 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.77 / defence 1.25, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Górnik Łęczna 30% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 38%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Górnik Łęczna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Górnik Łęczna 46%, Radomiak Radom 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Górnik Łęczna's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Radomiak Radom arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Górnik Łęczna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Górnik Łęczna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.