Górnik Łęczna 0-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Górnik Łęczna at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Górnik Łęczna vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Górnik Łęczna and Legia Warszawa meet at Stadion Górnik in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Friday 11 March 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Górnik Łęczna's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Górnik Łęczna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Górnik Łęczna's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Górnik this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Legia Warszawa have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Górnik Łęczna against 1.60 for Legia Warszawa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Górnik Łęczna lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Legia Warszawa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Górnik Łęczna — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Górnik Łęczna 65% versus Legia Warszawa 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Górnik Łęczna 52% | Legia Warszawa 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Górnik Łęczna 1.23 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.940 / defence 1.201 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.810 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.080 / away 1.052. Legia Warszawa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Górnik Łęczna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Górnik Łęczna games / 23 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 39% | Draw 31% | Legia Warszawa 29%. Fair-value odds: Górnik Łęczna 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Legia Warszawa 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Górnik Łęczna are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Górnik Łęczna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Górnik Łęczna 70% | Legia Warszawa 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Górnik Łęczna vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Górnik • Kick-off: Friday 11 Mar 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 39% | Draw 31% | Legia Warszawa 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Górnik Łęczna 1.23 / Legia Warszawa 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.940 / def 1.201 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.810 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.080 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Górnik Łęczna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Górnik Łęczna xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Legia Warszawa xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Górnik Łęczna vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Górnik Łęczna vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 11 March 2022 at Stadion Górnik.
What was the final score in Górnik Łęczna vs Legia Warszawa?
Górnik Łęczna 0 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Górnik Łęczna vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Górnik.
What competition is Górnik Łęczna vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Górnik Łęczna vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Górnik Łęczna vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Górnik Łęczna a 39% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Górnik Łęczna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Górnik Łęczna vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Górnik Łęczna and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Górnik Łęczna vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Legia Warszawa?
Record (1 meetings): Górnik Łęczna 0W | Draws 0 | Legia Warszawa 1W.
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Legia Warszawa in?
Górnik Łęczna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Górnik Łęczna's attack rating (0.94) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (0.81x) against Górnik Łęczna's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 24/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Górnik Łęczna Win
39%
2.55
31%
3.18
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Górnik Łęczna xG
Total xG
2.25
1.02
Legia Warszawa xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
9%
11.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.8 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Górnik Łęczna vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Górnik Łęczna and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Górnik Łęczna and 1.02 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Górnik Łęczna vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Górnik Łęczna come into this having played 23 games, going 5W 8D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-L. The sample for Górnik Łęczna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 1.09 PPG from 23 outings (8W 1D 14L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Górnik Łęczna against 1.09 for Legia Warszawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Górnik Łęczna's home form reads 3W 4D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 0.64 points per game from 11 outings (2W 1D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Górnik Łęczna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Górnik Łęczna are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.09 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Górnik Łęczna have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Górnik Łęczna
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Górnik Łęczna have gone 5W 8D 10L in their last 23 games (1.00 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 8W 1D 14L in their last 23 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Górnik Łęczna at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Górnik Łęczna's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Górnik Łęczna at home: 1.18 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Górnik Łęczna
0
Draws
2
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Legia Warszawa?
From 2 meetings on record, Górnik Łęczna have won 0, Legia Warszawa have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Górnik Łęczna and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2022, when Górnik Łęczna 0-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Górnik Łęczna and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Górnik Łęczna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Górnik Łęczna 64%, Legia Warszawa 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Górnik Łęczna) and 46% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Górnik Łęczna have failed to score in 27% of games; Legia Warszawa in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Górnik Łęczna home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Górnik Łęczna play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Górnik Łęczna's recent matches and 46% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Górnik Łęczna vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Górnik Łęczna's recent games and 46% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Górnik Łęczna and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Górnik Łęczna have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Legia Warszawa defy the odds to beat Górnik Łęczna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Górnik Łęczna 0-1 at Stadion Górnik, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Górnik Łęczna 1.23 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.02 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Górnik Łęczna fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Górnik Łęczna attack 0.94 / defence 1.20 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.81 / defence 1.21, drawn from 24/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Górnik Łęczna 39% | Draw 31% | Legia Warszawa 29%, with Górnik Łęczna to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Legia Warszawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Górnik Łęczna 52%, Legia Warszawa 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Górnik Łęczna's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Górnik Łęczna 1.00 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Górnik Łęczna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.