Cracovia Krakow 2-2 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Widzew Łódź make the trip to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 March 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Cracovia Krakow (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Widzew Łódź's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Cracovia Krakow, 1.50 for Widzew Łódź — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Cracovia Krakow 0W, Widzew Łódź 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Widzew Łódź winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cracovia Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 45% versus Widzew Łódź 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 33% | Widzew Łódź 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.69 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.243 / defence 1.103 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.047 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.136. Data: 58 Cracovia Krakow games / 58 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 45% | Draw 27% | Widzew Łódź 28%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Widzew Łódź 3.57. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 50% | Widzew Łódź 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 45% | Draw 27% | Widzew Łódź 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.69 / Widzew Łódź 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.243 / def 1.103 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.047 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Widzew Łódź xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Cracovia Krakow 2 - 2 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 45% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź?
Record (3 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 0W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 2W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cracovia Krakow's attack at 1.24x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (1.05x) against Cracovia Krakow's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
45%
2.24
27%
3.71
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
3.00
1.31
Widzew Łódź xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
5%
19.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.31 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Cracovia Krakow have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 17W 22D 19L record — W-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 20W 12D 26L from 58 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 1.24 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1.48 PPG from 29 outings (11W 10D 8L).
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 8W 9D 12L from 29 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.17 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 17W 22D 19L in their last 58 games (1.26 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 20W 12D 26L in their last 58 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.48 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cracovia Krakow
4
Draws
3
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Widzew Łódź have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Widzew Łódź 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 41%, Widzew Łódź 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Cracovia Krakow) and 41% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 55% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 41% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 25, as Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.69 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.31 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.24 / defence 1.10 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.05 / defence 0.96, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 45% | Draw 27% | Widzew Łódź 28%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 33%, Widzew Łódź 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.26 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.