Cracovia Krakow 2-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Raków Częstochowa at Marshal Jozef Pilsudski Stadium in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 August 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have gone 0W 8D 2L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Marshal Jozef Pilsudski Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Raków Częstochowa — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cracovia Krakow register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Raków Częstochowa in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Cracovia Krakow, 2 for Raków Częstochowa and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 1–4 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 44% versus Raków Częstochowa 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 42% | Raków Częstochowa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.25 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.773 / defence 1.055 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.061 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.231. Cracovia Krakow's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Cracovia Krakow games / 36 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 32% | Draw 29% | Raków Częstochowa 38%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Raków Częstochowa 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Cracovia Krakow dominate the H2H record, yet Raków Częstochowa are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 60% | Raków Częstochowa 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Marshal Jozef Pilsudski Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 32% | Draw 29% | Raków Częstochowa 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.25 / Raków Częstochowa 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.773 / def 1.055 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.061 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Raków Częstochowa xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Marshal Jozef Pilsudski Stadium.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Cracovia Krakow 2 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Marshal Jozef Pilsudski Stadium.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 32% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (9 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 4W | Draws 3 | Raków Częstochowa 2W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 0W-8D-2L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
32%
3.09
29%
3.43
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.63
1.38
Raków Częstochowa xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
8%
12.26
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.38 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Cracovia Krakow have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 8W 17D 11L record — D-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Raków Częstochowa's form line: 16W 7D 13L from 36 games, 1.53 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.14 PPG, Raków Częstochowa on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1.33 PPG from 18 outings (5W 9D 4L).
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 8W 3D 7L from 18 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.47 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 8W 17D 11L in their last 36 games (1.14 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 16W 7D 13L in their last 36 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.33 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2022, when Cracovia Krakow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cracovia Krakow
3
Draws
2
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 2-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 56%, Raków Częstochowa 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Cracovia Krakow) and 61% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 72% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 61% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cracovia Krakow defy the odds to beat Raków Częstochowa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Raków Częstochowa 2-1 at Marshal Jozef Pilsudski Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.25 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.38 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.77 / defence 1.05 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.06 / defence 1.05, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 32% | Draw 29% | Raków Częstochowa 38%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Cracovia Krakow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 42%, Raków Częstochowa 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.14 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.