Cracovia Krakow 0-0 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lech Poznan at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Lech Poznan at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 October 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Cracovia Krakow are significantly better at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lech Poznan have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lech Poznan — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cracovia Krakow have won 0, Lech Poznan 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lech Poznan trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 39% versus Lech Poznan 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 37% | Lech Poznan 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.01 xG and Lech Poznan 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.946 / defence 0.850 | Lech Poznan attack 1.218 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.115. Lech Poznan have an above-average attack strength of 1.218 — the away xG of 1.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Cracovia Krakow games / 46 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 31% | Draw 30% | Lech Poznan 39%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Lech Poznan 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lech Poznan at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 10% | Lech Poznan 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 31% | Draw 30% | Lech Poznan 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.01 / Lech Poznan 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.946 / def 0.850 | Lech Poznan attack 1.218 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Lech Poznan xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan?
Cracovia Krakow 0 - 0 Lech Poznan.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 31% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan?
Record (1 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 0W | Draws 1 | Lech Poznan 0W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Lech Poznan (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cracovia Krakow's attack at 0.95x the league average against Lech Poznan's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
31%
3.20
30%
3.32
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.17
1.16
Lech Poznan xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
10%
10.14
14%
7.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.16 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Cracovia Krakow have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 17W 12D 17L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lech Poznan's form line: 28W 11D 7L from 46 games, 2.07 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cracovia Krakow.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1.50 PPG from 22 outings (9W 6D 7L).
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 12W 7D 3L from 22 away games — 1.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lech Poznan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.76 scored and 0.74 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 17W 12D 17L in their last 46 games (1.37 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 28W 11D 7L in their last 46 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Lech Poznan away?
Lech Poznan's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.50 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2023, when Lech Poznan won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Lech Poznan specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Cracovia Krakow
6
Draws
3
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Lech Poznan have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Lech Poznan 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 32%, Lech Poznan 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Cracovia Krakow) and 54% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Lech Poznan in 32%; Cracovia Krakow have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Lech Poznan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 59% of Lech Poznan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 54% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Lech Poznan in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cracovia Krakow's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.01 xG and Lech Poznan 1.16 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Lech Poznan landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.95 / defence 0.85 against Lech Poznan attack 1.22 / defence 0.82, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 31% | Draw 30% | Lech Poznan 39%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 37%, Lech Poznan 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.