Cracovia Krakow 2-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 37%, yet in-form Jagiellonia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jagiellonia make the trip to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 August 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Cracovia Krakow (all games): 0W 1D 3L across 4 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.25 PPG. Last five: D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jagiellonia have collected 1.75 PPG across 4 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 1D 1L. Last five: D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Jagiellonia are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.75 vs 0.25). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 50% versus Jagiellonia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 50% | Jagiellonia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.20 xG and Jagiellonia 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.910 / defence 1.261 | Jagiellonia attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 1.094. Data: 4 Cracovia Krakow games / 4 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 37% | Draw 28% | Jagiellonia 35%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Jagiellonia 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jagiellonia (1.75 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Cracovia Krakow 50% | Jagiellonia 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 37% | Draw 28% | Jagiellonia 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.20 / Jagiellonia 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.910 / def 1.261 | Jagiellonia attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.147 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Jagiellonia xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Cracovia Krakow 2 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 37% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (0.85x) against Cracovia Krakow's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
37%
2.72
28%
3.59
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.37
1.17
Jagiellonia xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
11%
8.80
11%
9.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.17 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 1D 3L for 0.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Jagiellonia in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
Jagiellonia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
Have Cracovia Krakow or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 5-2 on 10 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cracovia Krakow have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cracovia Krakow
4
Draws
2
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 4, Jagiellonia have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 0-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 50%, Jagiellonia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cracovia Krakow) and 50% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia in 50%; Cracovia Krakow have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Jagiellonia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 50% of Jagiellonia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 50% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cracovia Krakow edge out Jagiellonia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Jagiellonia 2-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.20 xG and Jagiellonia 1.17 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.91 / defence 1.26 against Jagiellonia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 37% | Draw 28% | Jagiellonia 35%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 50%, Jagiellonia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.25. Form was overturned, with Cracovia Krakow winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cracovia Krakow scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Jagiellonia shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.