Cracovia Krakow 0-0 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jagiellonia make the trip to Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego to face Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 13:45 UTC.
Form
Cracovia Krakow (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Cracovia Krakow are significantly better at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Jagiellonia have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Cracovia Krakow, 1.70 for Jagiellonia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jagiellonia in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cracovia Krakow lead 4W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 2–5 with Jagiellonia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cracovia Krakow 66% and Jagiellonia 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 57% | Jagiellonia 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.20 xG and Jagiellonia 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.959 / defence 0.967 | Jagiellonia attack 1.057 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.201. Data: 54 Cracovia Krakow games / 53 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 35% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 36%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Jagiellonia 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jagiellonia at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 60% | Jagiellonia 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 35% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.20 / Jagiellonia 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.959 / def 0.967 | Jagiellonia attack 1.057 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Jagiellonia xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Cracovia Krakow 0 - 0 Jagiellonia.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 35% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia?
Record (9 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 4W | Draws 3 | Jagiellonia 2W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (1.06x) against Cracovia Krakow's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
35%
2.89
30%
3.37
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.43
1.23
Jagiellonia xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
10%
9.87
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.23 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 53 games, going 22W 15D 16L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-D. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.81 PPG from 53 outings (27W 15D 11L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 1.81 for Jagiellonia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 9W 9D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 1.68 points per game from 25 outings (11W 9D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.74 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Jagiellonia in 64%.
Last 53 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 22W 15D 16L in their last 53 games (1.53 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 27W 15D 11L in their last 53 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Jagiellonia away?
Jagiellonia's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.44 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 5-2 on 10 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cracovia Krakow have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cracovia Krakow
4
Draws
2
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 4, Jagiellonia have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 0-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for Cracovia Krakow, 64% for Jagiellonia — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Cracovia Krakow) and 44% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 64% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 44% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cracovia Krakow's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 21, as Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.20 xG and Jagiellonia 1.23 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Jagiellonia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.96 / defence 0.97 against Jagiellonia attack 1.06 / defence 0.84, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 35% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 36%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 57%, Jagiellonia 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.53 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.