Arka Gdynia 0-0 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arka Gdynia at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski w Gdyni plays host to Arka Gdynia versus Gornik Zabrze in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Arka Gdynia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Arka Gdynia's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Arka Gdynia are significantly better at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni than their overall form suggests.
Gornik Zabrze have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Gornik Zabrze have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Gornik Zabrze are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Arka Gdynia have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Gornik Zabrze in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Arka Gdynia 0W, Gornik Zabrze 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 1–5 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Arka Gdynia half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Gornik Zabrze half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arka Gdynia 52% versus Gornik Zabrze 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arka Gdynia 61% | Gornik Zabrze 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arka Gdynia 1.27 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arka Gdynia attack 0.961 / defence 1.231 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.924 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.103. Data: 31 Arka Gdynia games / 65 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arka Gdynia 35% | Draw 30% | Gornik Zabrze 34%. Fair-value odds: Arka Gdynia 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Gornik Zabrze 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arka Gdynia are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gornik Zabrze (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arka Gdynia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Arka Gdynia 70% | Gornik Zabrze 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gdyni • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arka Gdynia 35% | Draw 30% | Gornik Zabrze 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Arka Gdynia 1.27 / Gornik Zabrze 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Arka Gdynia attack 0.961 / def 1.231 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.924 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Arka Gdynia (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Arka Gdynia xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Gornik Zabrze xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni.
What was the final score in Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Zabrze?
Arka Gdynia 0 - 0 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni.
What competition is Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Arka Gdynia a 35% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Arka Gdynia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Arka Gdynia and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arka Gdynia and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (1 meetings): Arka Gdynia 0W | Draws 0 | Gornik Zabrze 1W.
What form are Arka Gdynia and Gornik Zabrze in?
Arka Gdynia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Arka Gdynia's attack at 0.96x the league average against Gornik Zabrze's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gornik Zabrze's attack (0.92x) against Arka Gdynia's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 31/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arka Gdynia Win
35%
2.84
30%
3.29
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Arka Gdynia xG
Total xG
2.52
1.25
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
10%
9.97
10%
10.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Arka Gdynia and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Arka Gdynia and 1.25 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, Arka Gdynia have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 9W 8D 14L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Gornik Zabrze's form line: 14W 7D 10L from 31 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Gornik Zabrze are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Arka Gdynia.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Arka Gdynia have posted 1.93 PPG from 15 outings (8W 5D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Arka Gdynia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 4W 6D 5L from 15 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arka Gdynia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Arka Gdynia are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.39 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arka Gdynia
Current Season
Gornik Zabrze
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arka Gdynia and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Arka Gdynia have gone 9W 8D 14L in their last 31 games (1.13 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 14W 7D 10L in their last 31 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arka Gdynia at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Arka Gdynia's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arka Gdynia at home: 1.93 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Arka Gdynia
1
Draws
1
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arka Gdynia and Gornik Zabrze?
From 2 meetings on record, Arka Gdynia have won 0, Gornik Zabrze have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arka Gdynia and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Arka Gdynia 0-0 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Arka Gdynia and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Arka Gdynia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gornik Zabrze see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arka Gdynia 67%, Gornik Zabrze 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Arka Gdynia) and 40% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze in 33%; Gornik Zabrze in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arka Gdynia home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arka Gdynia play Gornik Zabrze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Arka Gdynia's games and 53% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Arka Gdynia's recent games and 40% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arka Gdynia and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Arka Gdynia have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Arka Gdynia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Regular Season - 31, as Arka Gdynia and Gornik Zabrze drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arka Gdynia 1.27 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.25 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Arka Gdynia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Gornik Zabrze landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arka Gdynia attack 0.96 / defence 1.23 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arka Gdynia 35% | Draw 30% | Gornik Zabrze 34%, with Arka Gdynia to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arka Gdynia 61%, Gornik Zabrze 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arka Gdynia's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Gornik Zabrze arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.