Viking 5-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Viking at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Haugesund encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Haugesund travel to SR-Bank Arena to take on Viking in Eliteserien (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Viking — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Viking have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Haugesund have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Haugesund away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Viking are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Viking, 3 for Haugesund and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Jul 2024, ended Viking 0–1 Haugesund — a Haugesund win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Viking in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Haugesund in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Viking 64% versus Haugesund 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 60% | Haugesund 48%). Note also that Haugesund surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Viking recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.16 xG and Haugesund 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.325 / defence 1.142 | Haugesund attack 0.892 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.268. Viking carry an above-average attack rating of 1.325 — their 2.16 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Viking's last 58 games and Haugesund's last 58.

Result probabilities: Viking 57% | Draw 20% | Haugesund 22%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.75 | Draw 4.89 | Haugesund 4.47. The model has a clear lean to Viking (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.16 / 1.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Viking's last 10 home games and Haugesund's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Viking 60% (last 10 home games) | Haugesund 50% (last 10 away games).

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