Viking 3-1 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
SR-Bank Arena plays host to Viking versus Brann in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Viking's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Viking's home record at SR-Bank Arena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Brann (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Brann have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Viking register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Brann in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Viking 1W, Brann 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2020, ended 2–0 with Viking winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Viking — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Brann — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 60% and Brann 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 73% | Brann 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.98 xG and Brann 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.080 / defence 0.990 | Brann attack 0.997 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.798 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Viking games / 30 Brann games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Viking 51% | Draw 24% | Brann 25%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Brann 4.00. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Viking 70% | Brann 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 51% | Draw 24% | Brann 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Viking 1.98 / Brann 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.080 / def 0.990 | Brann attack 0.997 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.798 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Viking (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Brann xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Brann kick off?
Viking vs Brann kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 9 May 2021 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Brann?
Viking 3 - 1 Brann.
Where is Viking vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Brann part of?
Viking vs Brann is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 51% chance of winning, Brann a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Viking and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Brann?
Record (1 meetings): Viking 1W | Draws 0 | Brann 0W.
What form are Viking and Brann in?
Viking (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Brann (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.08x the league average against Brann's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Brann's attack (1.00x) against Viking's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
51%
1.94
24%
4.19
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Viking xG
Total xG
3.31
1.33
Brann xG
1.94
51%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
14%
7.21
Win to Nil
14%
7.36
3%
29.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Viking and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Viking and 1.33 for Brann, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Viking's recent record stands at 12W 8D 10L from 30 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Brann, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 12L across 30 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Viking against 1.20 for Brann. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Viking have managed 7W 4D 4L from 15 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brann's away record stands at 5W 4D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Viking are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.33 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Brann in 73%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
Brann
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Brann in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 12W 8D 10L in their last 30 games (1.47 PPG), while Brann have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Brann away?
Viking's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.67 PPG; Brann away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Viking go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 3-0 on 5 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Viking
2
Draws
1
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 7, Brann have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Viking 3-2 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Brann?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 67%, Brann 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Viking and 53% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Viking's games and 60% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Viking's matches and 53% of Brann's.
Do Viking and Brann tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Brann in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Brann.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Brann 3-1 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.98 xG and Brann 1.33 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.08 / defence 0.99 against Brann attack 1.00 / defence 1.02, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 51% | Draw 24% | Brann 25%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 73%, Brann 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Brann's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.47 PPG, Brann 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Brann (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.