Valerenga 2-2 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valerenga vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Stabaek travel to Intility Arena to take on Valerenga. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 June 2020, 17:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 0.74 xG and Stabaek 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 0.983 / defence 1.150 | Stabaek attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.651 / away 1.478. Data: 1 Valerenga games / 1 Stabaek games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Valerenga 19% | Draw 27% | Stabaek 54%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 5.26 | Draw 3.70 | Stabaek 1.85. Stabaek hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stabaek are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stabaek offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jun 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 19% | Draw 27% | Stabaek 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 40% | xG Valerenga 0.74 / Stabaek 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 0.983 / def 1.150 | Stabaek attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.651 / away 1.478 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Stabaek xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Stabaek kick off?
Valerenga vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 21 June 2020 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Stabaek?
Valerenga 2 - 2 Stabaek.
Where is Valerenga vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Stabaek part of?
Valerenga vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 19% chance of winning, Stabaek a 54% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Valerenga and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Stabaek?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valerenga and Stabaek in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Valerenga's attack at 0.98x the league average against Stabaek's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
19%
5.25
27%
3.72
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Valerenga xG
Total xG
2.18
1.45
Stabaek xG
5.25
19%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
4%
22.27
26%
3.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 16.3 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.45 for Stabaek, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Pre-Season
Stabaek
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valerenga and Stabaek runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Valerenga's record when hosting Stabaek specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Valerenga
3
Draws
1
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 2, Stabaek have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2023, when Valerenga 0-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Stabaek?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Valerenga and Stabaek share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 2, as Valerenga and Stabaek drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 0.74 xG and Stabaek 1.45 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Valerenga beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Stabaek attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 19% | Draw 27% | Stabaek 54%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.