Valerenga 5-1 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valerenga at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valerenga vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Brann travel to Intility Arena to take on Valerenga. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 September 2020, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Intility Arena, Valerenga have gone 4W 3D 0L this season (7 games, 2.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Brann — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Brann have gone 4W 1D 3L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game.
Valerenga are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Valerenga, 0 for Brann and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2020, ended 2–1 with Valerenga winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 31% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Brann in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 69% and Brann 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 62% | Brann 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.47 xG and Brann 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 0.983 / defence 0.970 | Brann attack 0.807 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.456. Data: 16 Valerenga games / 16 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 45% | Draw 26% | Brann 29%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Brann 3.45. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valerenga at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valerenga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 71% | Brann 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 45% | Draw 26% | Brann 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Valerenga 1.47 / Brann 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 0.983 / def 0.970 | Brann attack 0.807 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Brann xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Brann kick off?
Valerenga vs Brann kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 13 September 2020 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Brann?
Valerenga 5 - 1 Brann.
Where is Valerenga vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Brann part of?
Valerenga vs Brann is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 45% chance of winning, Brann a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Valerenga and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Brann?
Record (1 meetings): Valerenga 1W | Draws 0 | Brann 0W.
What form are Valerenga and Brann in?
Valerenga (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Brann (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Valerenga's attack rating (0.98) and Brann's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
45%
2.24
26%
3.86
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Valerenga xG
Total xG
2.61
1.14
Brann xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
7%
14.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.14 for Brann, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Valerenga's recent record stands at 7W 5D 4L from 16 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 6L across 16 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valerenga on 1.62 PPG, Brann on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Valerenga have managed 4W 3D 0L from 7 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Brann's away record stands at 3W 1D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Valerenga are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.31 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Brann in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Brann in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 7W 5D 4L in their last 16 games (1.62 PPG), while Brann have gone 6W 4D 6L in their last 16 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Brann away?
Valerenga's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.14 PPG; Brann away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Valerenga or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valerenga have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Brann in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valerenga and Brann runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2020, when Valerenga won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valerenga's record when hosting Brann specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Valerenga
0
Draws
4
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Brann?
From 9 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 5, Brann have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Brann 2-3 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Brann?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valerenga 71%, Brann 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Valerenga and 57% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Valerenga's games and 43% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Valerenga's matches and 57% of Brann's.
Do Valerenga and Brann tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Brann in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Valerenga run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Brann.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Brann 5-1 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.47 xG and Brann 1.14 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Valerenga beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 0.98 / defence 0.97 against Brann attack 0.81 / defence 1.07, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 45% | Draw 26% | Brann 29%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 62%, Brann 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Brann's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valerenga 1.62 PPG, Brann 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valerenga win broke the near-deadlock. Valerenga (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. Brann (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.