Valerenga 4-0 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valerenga at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valerenga vs Aalesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 17 as Valerenga welcome Aalesund to Intility Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Valerenga have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga at Intility Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Valerenga are significantly better at Intility Arena than their overall form suggests.
Aalesund — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Aalesund have posted 2W 3D 3L from 8 away outings — 1.12 PPG. Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Valerenga 1.40 PPG, Aalesund 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Valerenga, 0 for Aalesund and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Aalesund in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valerenga 50% versus Aalesund 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 56% | Aalesund 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.69 xG and Aalesund 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.012 / defence 1.036 | Aalesund attack 0.857 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 1.344. Data: 46 Valerenga games / 16 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 49% | Draw 24% | Aalesund 27%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Aalesund 3.70. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valerenga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Valerenga 40% | Aalesund 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 49% | Draw 24% | Aalesund 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Valerenga 1.69 / Aalesund 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 1.012 / def 1.036 | Aalesund attack 0.857 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.678 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Aalesund xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Aalesund kick off?
Valerenga vs Aalesund kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Aalesund?
Valerenga 4 - 0 Aalesund.
Where is Valerenga vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Aalesund part of?
Valerenga vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 49% chance of winning, Aalesund a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Valerenga and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Aalesund?
Record (3 meetings): Valerenga 0W | Draws 3 | Aalesund 0W.
What form are Valerenga and Aalesund in?
Valerenga (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Aalesund (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Valerenga's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Aalesund's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Aalesund's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
49%
2.05
24%
4.10
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Valerenga xG
Total xG
2.88
1.19
Aalesund xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
5%
20.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.3 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.19 for Aalesund, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Aalesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 16 outings, Valerenga have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 7W 2D 7L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aalesund's form line: 5W 6D 5L from 16 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valerenga on 1.44 PPG, Aalesund on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Valerenga have posted 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Aalesund have gone 2W 3D 2L from 7 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valerenga are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 1.12 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 7W 2D 7L in their last 16 games (1.44 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 5W 6D 5L in their last 16 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Aalesund away?
Valerenga's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 1.86 PPG; Aalesund away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Valerenga have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jul 2026, when Valerenga won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valerenga's record when hosting Aalesund specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Valerenga
3
Draws
0
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Aalesund?
From 7 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 4, Aalesund have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 16 July 2026, when Valerenga 6-1 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Aalesund?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valerenga see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valerenga 43%, Aalesund 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Valerenga) and 57% (Aalesund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valerenga have failed to score in 29% of games; Aalesund in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Aalesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Valerenga's recent matches and 57% of Aalesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valerenga vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Valerenga's matches and 57% of Aalesund's.
Do Valerenga and Aalesund tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Valerenga run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Aalesund 4-0 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.69 xG and Aalesund 1.19 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Valerenga beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Aalesund landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.01 / defence 1.04 against Aalesund attack 0.86 / defence 0.99, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 49% | Draw 24% | Aalesund 27%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 56%, Aalesund 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Aalesund's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valerenga 1.44 PPG, Aalesund 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valerenga win broke the near-deadlock. Valerenga (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Aalesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.