Tromso 0-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tromso at 47% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tromso vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tromso host Sandefjord at Romssa Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 5). Kick-off is Sunday 4 May 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Tromso stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Tromso's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Sandefjord have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Sandefjord have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Tromso 0.90 PPG, Sandefjord 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Tromso hold a clear advantage across the 7 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 0 for Sandefjord and 3 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2024, ended Tromso 3–0 Sandefjord — a Tromso win.
The head-to-head data gives Tromso an edge — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Tromso in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sandefjord in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 48% versus Sandefjord 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 57% | Sandefjord 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.86 xG and Sandefjord 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.942 / defence 1.058 | Sandefjord attack 0.949 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.397. Data: built from Tromso's last 34 games and Sandefjord's last 34.
Result probabilities: Tromso 47% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 28%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 2.12 | Draw 4.00 | Sandefjord 3.58. Tromso hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.86 / 1.40) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tromso at 47% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Tromso 4 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tromso offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Tromso's last 10 home games and Sandefjord's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tromso 40% (last 10 home games) | Sandefjord 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 5 | Venue: Romssa Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 47% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Tromso 1.86 / Sandefjord 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.942 / def 1.058 | Sandefjord attack 0.949 / def 1.191 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Tromso (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Sandefjord xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tromso vs Sandefjord FAQs
What time does Tromso vs Sandefjord kick off?
Tromso vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Romssa Arena.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Sandefjord?
Tromso 0 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Tromso vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Romssa Arena.
What competition is Tromso vs Sandefjord part of?
Tromso vs Sandefjord is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 5) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 47% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Tromso and Sandefjord will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Tromso vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tromso's attack rating (0.94) and Sandefjord's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Tromso's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Tromso's last 34 games and Sandefjord's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
47%
2.12
25%
4.00
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Tromso xG
Total xG
3.26
1.40
Sandefjord xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
4%
22.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tromso vs Sandefjord Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Tromso and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Tromso and 1.40 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Tromso have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 28W 10D 22L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Sandefjord's form line: 17W 14D 29L from 60 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Tromso are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sandefjord.
Venue Form
On home soil, Tromso have posted 1.60 PPG from their last 30 home games (14W 6D 10L).
On the road, Sandefjord have gone 4W 7D 19L from their last 30 away games — 0.63 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandefjord's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tromso come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tromso are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.47 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord in 60%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
Tromso (Home) vs Sandefjord (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tromso
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Tromso vs Sandefjord Form FAQs
What form are Tromso and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 28W 10D 22L in their last 60 games (1.57 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Sandefjord away?
Tromso's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.60 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.63 PPG.
Have Tromso or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tromso have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 26 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Jul 2022, when Tromso won Tromso 3-0 Sandefjord.
Tromso's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Tromso
3
Draws
2
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Tromso vs Sandefjord H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Sandefjord?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Tromso have won 5, Sandefjord have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Sandefjord last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2026: Tromso 3-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Sandefjord?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 53%, Sandefjord 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Tromso and 63% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tromso have failed to score in 27% of games; Sandefjord in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tromso vs Sandefjord Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tromso and Sandefjord matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Tromso's games and 63% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Tromso and Sandefjord matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Tromso's matches and 63% of Sandefjord's.
Do Tromso and Sandefjord matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Tromso's recent matches and 67% of Sandefjord's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sandefjord defy the odds to beat Tromso 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Tromso 0-1 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.86 xG and Sandefjord 1.40 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Tromso fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.94 / defence 1.06 against Sandefjord attack 0.95 / defence 1.19, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 47% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 28%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Sandefjord win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 57%, Sandefjord 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Tromso arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Sandefjord winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Sandefjord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.