Tromso 2-2 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tromso at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tromso vs Aalesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Alfheim Stadion plays host to Tromso versus Aalesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 13 November 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tromso have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Alfheim Stadion, Tromso have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Aalesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Aalesund's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Tromso against 1.70 for Aalesund. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Tromso lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Aalesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tromso 76% and Aalesund 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 59% | Aalesund 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 2.08 xG and Aalesund 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 1.040 / defence 0.993 | Aalesund attack 0.641 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.466. Data: 59 Tromso games / 29 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 64% | Draw 20% | Aalesund 16%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Aalesund 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Tromso (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tromso as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Tromso 70% | Aalesund 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Alfheim Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 64% | Draw 20% | Aalesund 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 53% | xG Tromso 2.08 / Aalesund 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 1.040 / def 0.993 | Aalesund attack 0.641 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.802 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Tromso (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Aalesund xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Aalesund kick off?
Tromso vs Aalesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Alfheim Stadion.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Aalesund?
Tromso 2 - 2 Aalesund.
Where is Tromso vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Alfheim Stadion.
What competition is Tromso vs Aalesund part of?
Tromso vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 64% chance of winning, Aalesund a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Tromso and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Aalesund?
Record (1 meetings): Tromso 0W | Draws 1 | Aalesund 0W.
What form are Tromso and Aalesund in?
Tromso (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Aalesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Tromso's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Aalesund's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.64x) against Tromso's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 59/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
64%
1.56
20%
4.96
16%
6.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Tromso xG
Total xG
3.02
0.93
Aalesund xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
6.28
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
12%
8.04
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
2%
50.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Tromso and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Tromso and 0.93 for Aalesund, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 29 outings, Tromso have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 10W 12D 7L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Aalesund's form line: 10W 8D 11L from 29 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Tromso against 1.31 for Aalesund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Tromso have posted 2.00 PPG from 14 outings (8W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Tromso are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Aalesund have gone 4W 3D 7L from 14 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tromso come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tromso are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 1.03 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tromso have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Current Season
Aalesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 10W 12D 7L in their last 29 games (1.45 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 10W 8D 11L in their last 29 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Aalesund away?
Tromso's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 2.00 PPG; Aalesund away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tromso won 2-6 on 2 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Aalesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Tromso
3
Draws
1
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Aalesund?
From 6 meetings on record, Tromso have won 2, Aalesund have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Aalesund 2-6 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Aalesund?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 71%, Aalesund 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Tromso and 64% for Aalesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aalesund in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Aalesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Tromso's games and 43% of Aalesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tromso vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Tromso's matches and 64% of Aalesund's.
Do Tromso and Aalesund tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tromso and Aalesund share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso and Aalesund finished level at 2-2 at Alfheim Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 2.08 xG and Aalesund 0.93 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Aalesund outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Aalesund attack 0.64 / defence 1.11, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 64% | Draw 20% | Aalesund 16%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 59%, Aalesund 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Aalesund's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tromso 1.45 PPG, Aalesund 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Aalesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.