Stromsgodset 3-0 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lillestrom at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stromsgodset host Lillestrom at Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 June 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stromsgodset stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Stromsgodset at Marienlyst Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Stromsgodset are significantly better at Marienlyst Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Lillestrom — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Lillestrom's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lillestrom — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Stromsgodset have won 1, Lillestrom 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 1–4 with Lillestrom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Lillestrom in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 53% versus Lillestrom 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 57% | Lillestrom 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.78 xG and Lillestrom 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.193 / defence 1.182 | Lillestrom attack 1.228 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.477. Lillestrom have an above-average attack strength of 1.228 — the away xG of 2.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Stromsgodset games / 41 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 32% | Draw 21% | Lillestrom 47%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 3.12 | Draw 4.76 | Lillestrom 2.13. Lillestrom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 2.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lillestrom as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 50% | Lillestrom 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jun 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 32% | Draw 21% | Lillestrom 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 74% | xG Stromsgodset 1.78 / Lillestrom 2.14 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.193 / def 1.182 | Lillestrom attack 1.228 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
2.14
Lillestrom xG
74%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 26 June 2022 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom?
Stromsgodset 3 - 0 Lillestrom.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom part of?
Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 32% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 47% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Stromsgodset and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Lillestrom?
Record (2 meetings): Stromsgodset 1W | Draws 0 | Lillestrom 1W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Lillestrom in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stromsgodset's attack rating (1.19) and Lillestrom's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 2.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
32%
3.08
21%
4.78
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.92
2.14
Lillestrom xG
3.08
32%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.78
Clean Sheet
12%
8.52
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
4%
26.25
8%
12.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 2.14 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stromsgodset come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 9D 12L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Lillestrom sit at 1.63 PPG from 30 outings (14W 7D 9L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Lillestrom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stromsgodset's home form reads 8W 4D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Stromsgodset are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lillestrom have taken 1.47 points per game from 15 outings (6W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.63 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Lillestrom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 14W 7D 9L in their last 30 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Lillestrom away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.87 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stromsgodset and Lillestrom runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Lillestrom won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Lillestrom specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Stromsgodset
0
Draws
5
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Lillestrom?
From 8 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 3, Lillestrom have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2024, when Stromsgodset 3-2 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Stromsgodset at 60%, Lillestrom at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Stromsgodset and 73% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Stromsgodset's games and 80% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Stromsgodset's matches and 73% of Lillestrom's.
Do Stromsgodset and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stromsgodset run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lillestrom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Lillestrom 3-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.78 xG and Lillestrom 2.14 xG, a combined 3.92. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Stromsgodset beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lillestrom landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.19 / defence 1.18 against Lillestrom attack 1.23 / defence 0.97, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 32% | Draw 21% | Lillestrom 47%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Stromsgodset win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 57%, Lillestrom 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Lillestrom's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Stromsgodset winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.