Stromsgodset 3-2 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stromsgodset host Lillestrom at Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 August 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stromsgodset stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset at Marienlyst Stadion this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Lillestrom — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Stromsgodset at 1.00 PPG versus Lillestrom's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Lillestrom have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against Stromsgodset's 2 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 4.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Jul 2024, ended 1–3 with Lillestrom winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lillestrom have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 4.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Lillestrom in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 47% versus Lillestrom 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 40% | Lillestrom 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.22 xG and Lillestrom 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.848 / defence 1.025 | Lillestrom attack 0.916 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.330. Data: 48 Stromsgodset games / 47 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 36% | Draw 27% | Lillestrom 37%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Lillestrom 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lillestrom as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lillestrom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Stromsgodset 40% | Lillestrom 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 36% | Draw 27% | Lillestrom 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Stromsgodset 1.22 / Lillestrom 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.848 / def 1.025 | Lillestrom attack 0.916 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Lillestrom xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom?
Stromsgodset 3 - 2 Lillestrom.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom part of?
Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 36% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Stromsgodset and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Lillestrom?
Record (7 meetings): Stromsgodset 2W | Draws 0 | Lillestrom 5W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Lillestrom in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stromsgodset's attack rating (0.85) and Lillestrom's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
36%
2.79
27%
3.68
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.47
1.25
Lillestrom xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
10%
9.73
11%
9.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.25 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stromsgodset come into this having played 47 games, going 17W 8D 22L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lillestrom sit at 1.34 PPG from 47 outings (19W 6D 22L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stromsgodset on 1.26 PPG, Lillestrom on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stromsgodset's home form reads 9W 4D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Lillestrom have taken 1.23 points per game from 22 outings (8W 3D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.51 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 17W 8D 22L in their last 47 games (1.26 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 19W 6D 22L in their last 47 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Lillestrom away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.41 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stromsgodset and Lillestrom runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Lillestrom won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Lillestrom specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Stromsgodset
0
Draws
5
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Lillestrom?
From 8 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 3, Lillestrom have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2024, when Stromsgodset 3-2 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 50%, Lillestrom 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Stromsgodset) and 59% (Lillestrom).
On the defensive side: Lillestrom in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Lillestrom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 54% of Lillestrom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Stromsgodset's recent games and 59% of Lillestrom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stromsgodset and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stromsgodset defy the odds to beat Lillestrom 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Lillestrom 3-2 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.22 xG and Lillestrom 1.25 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Stromsgodset beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.85 / defence 1.02 against Lillestrom attack 0.92 / defence 1.01, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 36% | Draw 27% | Lillestrom 37%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Stromsgodset win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 40%, Lillestrom 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Lillestrom's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.26 PPG, Lillestrom 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stromsgodset win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.