Stromsgodset 1-2 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 72%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Aalesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stromsgodset host Aalesund at Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 September 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset at Marienlyst Stadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stromsgodset are significantly better at Marienlyst Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aalesund stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Aalesund have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Stromsgodset carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Stromsgodset have won 1, Aalesund 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2022, ended 0–1 with Aalesund winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Aalesund in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 40% versus Aalesund 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 65% | Aalesund 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 2.44 xG and Aalesund 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.254 / defence 0.864 | Aalesund attack 0.762 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.334. Stromsgodset carry an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — their λ of 2.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 Stromsgodset games / 20 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 72% | Draw 17% | Aalesund 12%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | Aalesund 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Stromsgodset (72%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stromsgodset are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Stromsgodset 50% | Aalesund 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 72% | Draw 17% | Aalesund 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 53% | xG Stromsgodset 2.44 / Aalesund 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.254 / def 0.864 | Aalesund attack 0.762 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Aalesund xG
53%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Aalesund kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Aalesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Aalesund?
Stromsgodset 1 - 2 Aalesund.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Aalesund part of?
Stromsgodset vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 72% chance of winning, Aalesund a 12% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Stromsgodset and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Aalesund?
Record (3 meetings): Stromsgodset 1W | Draws 1 | Aalesund 1W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Aalesund in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Aalesund (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stromsgodset's attack rating (1.25) and Aalesund's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aalesund's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 3-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
72%
1.39
17%
6.01
12%
8.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.32
0.88
Aalesund xG
1.39
72%
Home win
6.01
17%
Draw
8.64
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
9%
11.51
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
1%
99.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 0.88 for Aalesund, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stromsgodset come into this having played 20 games, going 8W 5D 7L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Aalesund sit at 1.10 PPG from 20 outings (5W 7D 8L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stromsgodset on 1.45 PPG, Aalesund on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stromsgodset's home form reads 6W 2D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Stromsgodset are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Aalesund have taken 0.90 points per game from 10 outings (2W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 1.05 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 8W 5D 7L in their last 20 games (1.45 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 5W 7D 8L in their last 20 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Aalesund away?
Stromsgodset's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 2.00 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Stromsgodset or Aalesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Aalesund in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stromsgodset and Aalesund runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Dec 2020, when Stromsgodset won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Aalesund specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Stromsgodset
1
Draws
3
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Aalesund?
From 6 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 2, Aalesund have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2023, when Aalesund 1-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Aalesund?
Aalesund have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 50%, Aalesund 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Stromsgodset and 60% for Aalesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Aalesund in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Aalesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 50% of Aalesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stromsgodset vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Stromsgodset's matches and 60% of Aalesund's.
Do Stromsgodset and Aalesund tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aalesund defy the odds to beat Stromsgodset 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aalesund beat Stromsgodset 1-2 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 2.44 xG and Aalesund 0.88 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Aalesund outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.25 / defence 0.86 against Aalesund attack 0.76 / defence 1.15, drawn from 50/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 72% | Draw 17% | Aalesund 12%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a Aalesund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 65%, Aalesund 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Aalesund's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.45 PPG, Aalesund 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aalesund win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Aalesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.