Start 2-4 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Start at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Start vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Start host Ham-Kam at Sør Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Start stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Start have posted 3W 3D 4L at Sør Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Ham-Kam — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Start at 0.90 PPG versus Ham-Kam's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Start have won 0, Ham-Kam 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Ham-Kam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Start in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ham-Kam in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Start 57% versus Ham-Kam 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Start 57% | Ham-Kam 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Start 1.75 xG and Ham-Kam 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Start attack 0.828 / defence 1.052 | Ham-Kam attack 0.865 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.775 / away 1.419. Data: 21 Start games / 51 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Start 47% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 27%. Fair-value odds: Start 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Ham-Kam 3.70. Start hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Start are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Start offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Start 50% | Ham-Kam 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Start vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Sør Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Start 47% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Start 1.75 / Ham-Kam 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Start attack 0.828 / def 1.052 | Ham-Kam attack 0.865 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.775 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Start (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Start xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Ham-Kam xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Start vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Start vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Sør Arena.
What was the final score in Start vs Ham-Kam?
Start 2 - 4 Ham-Kam.
Where is Start vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Sør Arena.
What competition is Start vs Ham-Kam part of?
Start vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Start vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Start a 47% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Start the favourite.
Will both teams score in Start vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Start and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Start vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Ham-Kam?
Record (1 meetings): Start 0W | Draws 0 | Ham-Kam 1W.
What form are Start and Ham-Kam in?
Start (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Start's attack rating (0.83) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ham-Kam's attack versus Start's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Start Win
47%
2.14
26%
3.79
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Start xG
Total xG
3.04
1.29
Ham-Kam xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
13%
7.78
5%
21.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.8 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Start vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Start and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Start and 1.29 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Start vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Start come into this having played 21 games, going 4W 4D 13L for 0.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ham-Kam sit at 1.10 PPG from 21 outings (6W 5D 10L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Start on 0.76 PPG, Ham-Kam on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Start's home form reads 3W 3D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.76 PPG overall — Start are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ham-Kam have taken 0.60 points per game from 10 outings (1W 3D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ham-Kam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Start come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Start are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.38 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Start
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Start and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Start have gone 4W 4D 13L in their last 21 games (0.76 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 6W 5D 10L in their last 21 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Start at home or Ham-Kam away?
Start's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Start at home: 1.20 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Start and Ham-Kam runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Start
0
Draws
2
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Ham-Kam?
From 2 meetings on record, Start have won 0, Ham-Kam have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Start and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Start 2-4 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Start and Ham-Kam?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Start 50%, Ham-Kam 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Start and 80% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Start have failed to score in 30% of games; Ham-Kam in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Start home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Start play Ham-Kam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Start's recent matches and 50% of Ham-Kam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Start vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Start's matches and 80% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Start and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Start have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ham-Kam cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Start.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Start 2-4 at Sør Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Start 1.75 xG and Ham-Kam 1.29 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Ham-Kam outscored their 1.29 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Start attack 0.83 / defence 1.05 against Ham-Kam attack 0.86 / defence 1.19, drawn from 21/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Start 47% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 27%, with Start to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Ham-Kam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Start 57%, Ham-Kam 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Start's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Start 0.76 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Start (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.