Start 1-4 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Start vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.

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Match Analysis

Start host Bodo/Glimt at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 20 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Start, 2 for Bodo/Glimt and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2026, ended 0–5 with Bodo/Glimt winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Start 1.10 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Start attack 0.738 / defence 1.080 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.174 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.746 / away 1.170. Start's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Start games / 38 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Start 28% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 46%. Fair-value odds: Start 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Bodo/Glimt 2.17. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

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