Stabaek 0-2 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valerenga at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stabaek vs Valerenga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 9 as Stabaek welcome Valerenga to Nadderud Stadion. Kick-off is set for Thursday 24 June 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stabaek have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Stabaek at Nadderud Stadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Valerenga — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Valerenga away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Valerenga's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Stabaek's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Stabaek, 0 for Valerenga and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Stabaek in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 50% versus Valerenga 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 53% | Valerenga 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.48 xG and Valerenga 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.885 / defence 1.215 | Valerenga attack 1.264 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.185. Valerenga have an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Stabaek games / 39 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 30% | Draw 25% | Valerenga 45%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Valerenga 2.22. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valerenga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 50% | Valerenga 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 24 Jun 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 30% | Draw 25% | Valerenga 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Stabaek 1.48 / Valerenga 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.885 / def 1.215 | Valerenga attack 1.264 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Valerenga xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Valerenga kick off?
Stabaek vs Valerenga kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 24 June 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Valerenga?
Stabaek 0 - 2 Valerenga.
Where is Stabaek vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Valerenga part of?
Stabaek vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 30% chance of winning, Valerenga a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Stabaek and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Valerenga?
Record (2 meetings): Stabaek 0W | Draws 2 | Valerenga 0W.
What form are Stabaek and Valerenga in?
Stabaek (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Valerenga (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stabaek's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Stabaek's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
30%
3.28
25%
4.04
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Stabaek xG
Total xG
3.30
1.82
Valerenga xG
3.28
30%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
16%
6.18
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
5%
20.26
10%
9.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.82 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stabaek's recent record stands at 9W 12D 9L from 30 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 5L across 30 games — 1.83 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Valerenga by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stabaek heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stabaek have managed 5W 6D 4L from 15 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 5W 5D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Stabaek are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.70 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Current Season
Valerenga
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 9W 12D 9L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 15W 10D 5L in their last 30 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Valerenga away?
Stabaek's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.40 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Stabaek or Valerenga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Valerenga in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Stabaek's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stabaek
3
Draws
2
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Valerenga?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 1, Valerenga have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2023, when Valerenga 0-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 40%, Valerenga 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Stabaek) and 47% (Valerenga).
On the defensive side: Stabaek keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Valerenga in 33%; Stabaek have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Valerenga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stabaek's recent matches and 60% of Valerenga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Stabaek's recent games and 47% of Valerenga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Valerenga tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valerenga cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Stabaek 0-2 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.48 xG and Valerenga 1.82 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Stabaek fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.89 / defence 1.22 against Valerenga attack 1.26 / defence 1.00, drawn from 36/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 30% | Draw 25% | Valerenga 45%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 53%, Valerenga 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valerenga's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valerenga (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.