Stabaek vs Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stabaek vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tromso make the trip to Nadderud Stadion to face Stabaek in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Wednesday 14 April 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Stabaek (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Nadderud Stadion, Stabaek have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.93 xG and Tromso 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.933 / defence 0.990 | Tromso attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.796 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Stabaek games / 0 Tromso games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Stabaek 55% | Draw 24% | Tromso 21%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Tromso 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Stabaek (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stabaek as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 55% | Draw 24% | Tromso 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Stabaek 1.93 / Tromso 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.933 / def 0.990 | Tromso attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.796 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Tromso xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Tromso kick off?
Stabaek vs Tromso kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 14 April 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
Where is Stabaek vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Tromso part of?
Stabaek vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 55% chance of winning, Tromso a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Stabaek and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Tromso?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stabaek and Tromso in?
Stabaek (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Stabaek home split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stabaek's attack at 0.93x the league average against Tromso's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (0.85x) against Stabaek's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.11
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Stabaek xG
Total xG
3.06
1.14
Tromso xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
3%
32.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.2 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.14 for Tromso, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Tromso?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Pre-Season
Tromso
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tromso won 0-3 on 14 Jun 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Stabaek
1
Draws
3
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Tromso?
From 4 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 0, Tromso have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2023, when Stabaek 0-1 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Stabaek's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek and Tromso finished level at 0-0 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.93 xG and Tromso 1.14 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stabaek fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Tromso landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.93 / defence 0.99 against Tromso attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 55% | Draw 24% | Tromso 21%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.