Stabaek 0-0 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 37%, yet in-form Stromsgodset provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stabaek vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stabaek host Stromsgodset at Nadderud Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 29 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stabaek — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's home record at Nadderud Stadion: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Stromsgodset have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Stromsgodset — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Stabaek have won 2, Stromsgodset 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2021, ended 1–2 with Stromsgodset winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stabaek in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 57% versus Stromsgodset 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 61% | Stromsgodset 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.37 xG and Stromsgodset 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.775 / defence 1.270 | Stromsgodset attack 0.751 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.826 / away 1.345. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 1.37 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Stabaek games / 49 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 37% | Draw 31% | Stromsgodset 32%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Stromsgodset 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stabaek are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stromsgodset (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stabaek offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 60% | Stromsgodset 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 37% | Draw 31% | Stromsgodset 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Stabaek 1.37 / Stromsgodset 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.775 / def 1.270 | Stromsgodset attack 0.751 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.826 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Stromsgodset xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Stabaek vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 29 September 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Stromsgodset?
Stabaek 0 - 0 Stromsgodset.
Where is Stabaek vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Stromsgodset part of?
Stabaek vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 37% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Stabaek and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Stromsgodset?
Record (3 meetings): Stabaek 2W | Draws 0 | Stromsgodset 1W.
What form are Stabaek and Stromsgodset in?
Stabaek (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Stromsgodset (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stabaek's attack rating (0.78) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Stabaek's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
37%
2.73
31%
3.24
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.65
1.28
Stromsgodset xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
10%
9.83
8%
12.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.28 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Stabaek have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 13W 16D 20L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset's form line: 15W 14D 20L from 49 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stabaek on 1.12 PPG, Stromsgodset on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 1.21 PPG from 24 outings (7W 8D 9L).
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 5W 6D 13L from 24 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Stabaek are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.47 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 13W 16D 20L in their last 49 games (1.12 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 15W 14D 20L in their last 49 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Stromsgodset away?
Stabaek's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.21 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stabaek and Stromsgodset runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stromsgodset go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Dec 2020, when Stabaek won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stabaek's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Stabaek
1
Draws
3
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Stromsgodset?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 2, Stromsgodset have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2023, when Stromsgodset 2-1 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Stromsgodset?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 46%, Stromsgodset 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Stabaek) and 62% (Stromsgodset).
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 33% of games; Stromsgodset in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Stabaek's recent matches and 58% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Stabaek's recent games and 62% of Stromsgodset's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stabaek's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek and Stromsgodset finished level at 0-0 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.37 xG and Stromsgodset 1.28 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stabaek fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Stromsgodset landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.78 / defence 1.27 against Stromsgodset attack 0.75 / defence 0.97, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 37% | Draw 31% | Stromsgodset 32%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 61%, Stromsgodset 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stabaek 1.12 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.