Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 42%, yet in-form Stabaek provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nadderud Stadion plays host to Stabaek versus Sarpsborg 08 FF in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Wednesday 30 June 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stabaek have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stabaek have posted 3W 4D 3L at Nadderud Stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all games): 0W 5D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Stabaek's 1.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Sarpsborg 08 FF's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Stabaek, 1 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2020, ended 0–4 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Stabaek half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 50% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 53% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.08 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.770 / defence 1.228 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.957 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.179. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Stabaek games / 38 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 28% | Draw 30% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 42%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sarpsborg 08 FF at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stabaek (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 50% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Jun 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 28% | Draw 30% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Stabaek 1.08 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.770 / def 1.228 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.957 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 01:00 on Wednesday 30 June 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
Where is Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 28% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (2 meetings): Stabaek 0W | Draws 1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W.
What form are Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Stabaek (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Stabaek's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.96x) against Stabaek's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
28%
3.59
30%
3.35
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.47
1.38
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
7%
14.31
14%
7.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.38 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stabaek's recent record stands at 9W 12D 9L from 30 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 14L across 30 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-D-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Stabaek against 1.07 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Stabaek have managed 5W 6D 4L from 15 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 2W 5D 8L across 15 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stabaek come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stabaek are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.10 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 9W 12D 9L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 8W 8D 14L in their last 30 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Stabaek's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.40 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Stabaek or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 on 3 Oct 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stabaek
3
Draws
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 1, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2023, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-2 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 40%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Stabaek) and 47% (Sarpsborg 08 FF).
On the defensive side: Stabaek keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stabaek have failed to score in 33% of games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stabaek's recent matches and 53% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Stabaek's recent games and 47% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stabaek's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 13, as Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.08 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.38 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stabaek fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.77 / defence 1.23 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.96 / defence 0.84, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 28% | Draw 30% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 42%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 53%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stabaek 1.30 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.