Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valerenga at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Valerenga travel to Sarpsborg Stadion to take on Sarpsborg 08 FF. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 16 June 2020, 19:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.56 xG and Valerenga 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Valerenga attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.573 / away 1.965. Data: 0 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 0 Valerenga games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 7% | Draw 25% | Valerenga 67%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 14.29 | Draw 4.00 | Valerenga 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Valerenga (67%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Jun 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 7% | Draw 25% | Valerenga 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 39% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.56 / Valerenga 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Valerenga attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.573 / away 1.965 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.56
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Valerenga xG
39%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 16 June 2020 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 0 - 1 Valerenga.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 7% chance of winning, Valerenga a 67% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.85) and Valerenga's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.9%), 1-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
7%
13.87
25%
3.92
67%
1.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
15.4%
Away win
0 – 3
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.56
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.48
1.92
Valerenga xG
13.87
7%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
1.49
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
15%
6.83
57%
1.75
Win to Nil
1%
94.70
38%
2.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 16.1 | 15.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 0.56 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.92 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Pre-Season
Valerenga
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Valerenga have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2025, when Valerenga won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
Draws
4
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, Valerenga have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Valerenga 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Valerenga edge out Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.56 xG and Valerenga 1.92 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Valerenga landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Valerenga attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 7% | Draw 25% | Valerenga 67%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.