Sarpsborg 08 FF 5-1 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 44%, yet in-form Sarpsborg 08 FF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF host Stromsgodset at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 June 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record at Sarpsborg Stadion: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 1, Stromsgodset 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 0–5 with Stromsgodset winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 52% versus Stromsgodset 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 52% | Stromsgodset 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.94 xG and Stromsgodset 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.848 / defence 0.945 | Stromsgodset attack 0.920 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.452. Stromsgodset's defence strength of 0.764 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 40 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 27% | Draw 29% | Stromsgodset 44%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Stromsgodset 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stromsgodset at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sarpsborg 08 FF (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Stromsgodset 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jun 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 27% | Draw 29% | Stromsgodset 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.94 / Stromsgodset 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.848 / def 0.945 | Stromsgodset attack 0.920 / def 0.764 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Stromsgodset xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 June 2022 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 5 - 1 Stromsgodset.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 27% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset?
Record (2 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W | Draws 0 | Stromsgodset 1W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Stromsgodset (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sarpsborg 08 FF's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Stromsgodset's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
27%
3.64
29%
3.48
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.20
1.26
Stromsgodset xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
8%
12.86
17%
5.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 14.0 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.26 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent record stands at 19W 14D 27L from 60 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Stromsgodset, meanwhile, have gone 16W 19D 25L across 60 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.18 PPG, Stromsgodset on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sarpsborg 08 FF have managed 12W 8D 10L from 30 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stromsgodset's away record stands at 5W 9D 16L across 30 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.40 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Stromsgodset
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 16W 19D 25L in their last 60 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Stromsgodset away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.47 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Stromsgodset go into this on the back of 7 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Stromsgodset won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
0
Draws
8
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, Stromsgodset have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Stromsgodset 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%, Stromsgodset 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 60% (Stromsgodset).
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 30% of games; Stromsgodset in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 57% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 60% of Stromsgodset's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sarpsborg 08 FF run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Stromsgodset 5-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.94 xG and Stromsgodset 1.26 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF beat their projection by 4.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.85 / defence 0.94 against Stromsgodset attack 0.92 / defence 0.76, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 27% | Draw 29% | Stromsgodset 44%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Sarpsborg 08 FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 52%, Stromsgodset 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.18 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.