Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stabaek make the trip to Sarpsborg Stadion to face Sarpsborg 08 FF in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record at Sarpsborg Stadion: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sarpsborg Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Stabaek's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 0.80 for Stabaek — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W, Stabaek 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 1–3 with Stabaek winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sarpsborg 08 FF — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Stabaek — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 44% versus Stabaek 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 44% | Stabaek 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.06 xG and Stabaek 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.899 / defence 0.735 | Stabaek attack 1.062 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.864 / away 1.269. Stabaek bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Sarpsborg 08 FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating of 0.735 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 48 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% | Draw 24% | Stabaek 15%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Stabaek 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Sarpsborg 08 FF (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 30% | Stabaek 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% | Draw 24% | Stabaek 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.06 / Stabaek 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.899 / def 0.735 | Stabaek attack 1.062 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.864 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Stabaek xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 60% chance of winning, Stabaek a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek?
Record (3 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W | Draws 1 | Stabaek 1W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Stabaek (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.90) and Stabaek's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stabaek's attack (1.06x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.09
15%
6.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.05
0.99
Stabaek xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
6.49
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
13%
7.86
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
2%
51.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.99 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent record stands at 13W 13D 22L from 48 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stabaek, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 20L across 48 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.08 for Stabaek. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sarpsborg 08 FF have managed 9W 7D 8L from 24 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stabaek's away record stands at 5W 8D 11L across 24 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.33 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 13W 13D 22L in their last 48 games (1.08 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 12W 16D 20L in their last 48 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Stabaek away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.42 PPG; Stabaek away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Stabaek been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Stabaek in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 on 3 Oct 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stabaek — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
Draws
1
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, Stabaek have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2023, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-2 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 33%, Stabaek 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 75% (Stabaek). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Stabaek?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 71% of Stabaek's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 75% of Stabaek's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sarpsborg 08 FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek finished level at 0-0 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.06 xG and Stabaek 0.99 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Stabaek landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.90 / defence 0.73 against Stabaek attack 1.06 / defence 1.23, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% | Draw 24% | Stabaek 15%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 44%, Stabaek 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stabaek's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.08 PPG, Stabaek 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.